Aleksandar Vichev
EWM Interactive
“We should not be surprised, if the support level around 100.00 gives up.” This is the last sentence of a forecast called “The Bears Are Ready To Attack AUDJPY”, which we published on November 29th, when the pair was trading close to 101. Our expectations were based on the wave structure visible on the 30-minute chart of AUDJPY given below.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, every 5-3 cycle, like the one shown on the chart, is followed by a move in the direction of the five-wave sequence. That is the reason why we anticipated that sooner or later AUDJPY should start declining again. On the next chart you will be able to see how the pair has been developing after this forecast.
As visible, the market decided to continue sideways for a while. However, this did not change the bearish expectations at all. As soon as this w-x-y double zig-zag retracement was over, the exchange rate resumed its downtrend. Last week the support zone around 100.00 finally gave up, which led to more weakness. Earlier today AUDJPY touched 96.80. Compared to the level it was at when the forecast was made, this is a sell-off of about 400 pips so far. Having in mind the big picture outlook, it may be just the beginning…
Trading financial instruments entails a great degree of uncertainty and a variety of risks. EMW Interactive’s materials and market analysis are provided for educational purposes only. As such, their main purpose is to illustrate how the Elliott Wave Principle can be applied to predict movements in the financial markets. As a perfectly accurate method for technical analysis does not exist, the Elliott Wave Principle is also not flawless. As a result, the company does not take any responsibility for the potential losses our end-user might incur. Simply, any decision to trade or invest, based on the information from this website, is at your own risk.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.