Daily Forecast - 10 March 2016
S&P March Contract
Emini S&P holding below 1989/88 re-targets the most important support of the day now at 1979/78. A break below 1974 therefore is a sell signal & could see sharp losses to 1964 then good support at 1961/59. A good chance of a bounce from here as we become oversold short term. However longs need stops below 1955 & a break lower is another sell signal.
Any gains should be limited with first resistance at 1994. However if we continue higher look for trend line resistance at 2000 today. If we unexpectedly continue higher the most important resistance of the week is at 2007/2008.
E Mini Nasdaq March Contract
Emini Nasdaq holding below 4289 re-targets 4270/69 then 4260/55 before good support at 4245/40 which could hold the downside at this stage. Longs still look risky though & a break below 4230 acts as another sell signal to target 4211 then good support at 4285/80. A bounce from here is expected at this stage.
Minor resistance at 4300 but above 4310 targets resistance at 4325/30. We should struggle with gains in overbought conditions but if we continue higher look for trend line resistance at 4340. Above here meets last week's high at 4355/58.
Emini Dow Jones March Contract
Emini Dow Jones overbought & risks grow to the downside as we appear to run out of steam in the bear trend recovery. The close below the 100dma at 16990 is not positive & risks a retest of first support at 16930/920. We bottomed only 10 ticks above here yesterday but if we continue lower look for then next target & better support at 16860/850. However longs need stops below 16800. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 16740, perhaps as far as support at 16710/16595.
First resistance at 16990/17000 but above here we could retest the 17080 high. Any recovery should be a struggle & gains are expected to be limited. However if we continue higher the 200 day moving average at 17110/120 plus longer term Fibonacci resistance at 17170 & the 100 week moving average at 17210 are all major barriers to further gains this week.
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