Dax strong resistance at 9430/40

Daily Forecast - 18 February 2016

Emini Dow Jones March contract

Emini Dow Jones tests resistance at 16450/470. Shorts need stops above 16520. A break higher is another buy signal & targets 16630/640 then 16666. If we continue higher look for 16710 then strong resistance at 16775/785 for a selling opportunity.

Failure to hold above 16450/470 targets first support at 16390/380. If we continue lower look for 16330/325 but below here strong support at 16250/240 could hold the downside today. Longs need stops below 16200. Further losses target 16165/160 then an excellent buying opportunity at 16095/085.

Ftse March contract

FTSE will need a break above 6020/30 to continue the recovery & target VERY STRONG resistance at 6070/80. We are overbought & we are in a bear trend so we could end the recovery here & this should be a good selling opportunity. In fact we also have the 100 day moving average at 6100/05 so only a break (& really a close too) above here then keeps bulls in short term control.

Failure to beat 6020/30 risks a slide to good support at 5960/50. This must hold the downside or we would have seen a false break of strong resistance yesterday. Below 5940 is more negative & targets 5900 then 5880. If we continue lower look for good support at 5840/30 which should hold the downside at this stage.

S&P March contract

Emini S&P has made it as far as 1928 as I write. Although overbought short term it looks like we can continue higher to 1938/40. This is important because it is the 2 week & therefore the February high, as well as a 50% recovery of the steep sell off from late December. So this is the main challenge for bulls today. A break above 1946 however is positive again & targets 1952 & 1956.

Below 1922 signals some weakness & risks a slide to 1918/17 then 1910. If we continue lower look for the best support of the day at 1905/04. Longs need stops below 1899. A break lower targets 1892/91.

Dax March contract

Dax strong resistance at 9430/40 is our first big challenge of course. We are short term overbought in a bear trend so we should struggle here. It is possible we turn lower but be aware that further gains target very strong resistance at in the 9530/70 band. This is the most important level of the week with a good chance the bear trend resumes from here. Shorts need wide stops above 9630 but I would only be more positive on a close above 9590.

Failure to beat 9430/40 targets 9350. If we continue lower look for 9310/05 then 9275 & good support at 9250/40. This is the best chance of a low for the day but longs need stops below 9190. A break lower targets minor support at 9140/30.