EURUSD holding below 1.0860/65 is negative for today

Daily Forecast - 04 January 2016

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD first resistance at 7305/10 but above here re-targets minor resistance at 7330/35. We are overbought but shorts need stops above 7345 with a break higher to target 7360/63 then October/December highs at 7382/85.

Failure to beat 7305/10 targets first support at 7270/65. Again, longs need stops below 7250 with further losses to target support at 7228/25. This could hold the downside, but longs need stops below 7215. Further losses target 7205/00. If we continue lower look for a buying opportunity at 7175/70, with stops below 7155.

EURGBP Spot

EURGBP holding above first support at 7355/7350 re-targets 7376/80 then resistance at 2 week highs of 7408/16. A break higher this week targets 7425/30 then 7440/44. If we continue higher look for 7472/74 before October highs at 7490/93.

First support at 7355/50 but longs need stops below 7340. A break lower targets the best support for today at 7319/15 which could hold the downside. Longs need stops below 7300. A break lower sees 7315/19 act as strong resistance to target 7290/88 & perhaps as far as strong support at 7260/56. Try longs with stops below 7245.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD holding below 1.0860/65 is negative for today & targets good support at 1.0805/00. We are oversold short term so watch for a bounce from here but just be aware that break lower targets 1.0775 then good support at 1.0740/35.

Holding above 1.0860/65 allows a recovery to unwind short term oversold conditions & targets first resistance at 1.0897/1.0900. Gains are likely to be limited but if we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 1.0935/40. Shorts need stops above 1.0960. If we continue higher look for a retest of 2 week highs of 1.0984/92 which should be a big challenge for bulls today & a good area for profit taking on any longs.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD very oversold but until we see a buy signal it is too risky to bet against the bears right now. 2 month trend line support at 1.4730/25 today but a break below 1.4720 risks a slide to 1.4699/95. If we continue lower look for 1.4665/60, perhaps as far as 1.4635/30.

Holding first support at 1.4730/25 allows a recovery to first resistance at 1.4790/1.4800. If we continue higher look for stronger resistance at 1.4840/45. Look for a high for the day & try shorts with stops above 1.4870. Just be aware that a break higher could then target strong resistance at 1.4915/20.