Canadian dollar remains under pressure

The appetite for risk is neutral in the FX space at the beginning of the week after the pusillanimous US non-farm payrolls report vaulted most foreign currencies on Friday. Only the Canadian dollar remains under pressure after collapsing further to a near four-year low on additional weak local data – this time rising local unemployment.

The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.

Good luck!       

 
Overnight

• US: The non-farm payroll employment edged up by 74,000 jobs in December, well below estimates for an increase of about 200,000 jobs, following the upwardly revised increase of 241,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7% in December from 7.0% in November.
• Canada: The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% in December from 6.9% in November.   
  

Today's economic calendar

• Japan: Machinery orders for November
• Australia: Home loans for November   
  

EUR – March

The LGR Model: Long since January 10    

The March euro starts little changed in the Far East after surging to a 1 1/2-week high on Friday. It tested three times the support from the trend line rising since July 9. Euro peaked at an over two-year high in thin volume on December 27. It trades around the 21-day exponential moving average. Euro formed a medium-term low on November 7 and a long-term bottom in July 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3715. Further resistance is at 1.3755. A long-term peak is at 1.3893.
Initial support is at 1.3620. Further support is at 1.3547 and 1.3470.
   
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
 
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
 
 

JPY – March

The LGR Model: Long since January 10

The March Japanese yen opens around the 21-day exponential moving average after reversing on Friday from a one-week low to a 2 ½-week high. It marked an over five-year low on January 2. The yen has been falling since November 8, when it broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. The yen formed a long-term peak on June 13, 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at .9670. Further resistance is at .9793.
Initial support is at .9565. The current low of the downtrend is .9486. 

INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish 
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
 
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways   
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish 
 
 

GBP – March

The LGR Model: Long since January 8     

The March pound opens on firm note on profit taking after marching up to an eight-day high on Friday. It trades above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound ended 2013 at a 2 ½-year high. It formed a short-term bottom at a three-week low on December 17. The pound had formed a medium-term bottom on November 12 and a long-term bottom at a three-year low on July 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6490. The current peak is 1.6572. 
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6404. The next supports are 1.6329 and 1.6215.

INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
 
 
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways                 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
 
 

CHF – March

The LGR Model: Short since January 2     
 
The March Swiss franc starts little changed in the Far East after advancing to at a one-week high on Friday and marking a 1 ½-month low on Wednesday. The rally on Wednesday formed a piercing line bullish reversal. It had peaked at an over two-year high on December 27. The franc seems to have formed a double top pattern. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc bottomed at a 1 ½-month low on November 7. The franc formed a medium-term bottom on July 10 and a long-term bottom on May 22.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1114. Further resistance is at 1.1165.
Initial support is at 1.1035. Further support is at 1.0935.

INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
 
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways     
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
 

CAD – March

The LGR Model: Short since November 18   

The March Canadian dollar opens under pressure after extending losses to a new 3 2/3-year low on Friday. It could see some mild recovery the next move down. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It had been free falling since November 19. The loonie peaked at a one-month high on October 22. A medium-term peak was formed on July 31. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Immediate support is at .9120. The next support is .9090 and .9035. 
Initial resistance is at .9220. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant .9318. 

INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish   
 
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways          
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish 
 
 

AUD – March

The LGR Model: Long since January 10
 
The March Australian dollar starts near a one-month high after surging on Friday. It trades above the declining 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on December 18. It essentially reached the target of a head-and-shoulder formation before reversing. The Aussie formed a medium-term high on April 11 and a long-term top on January 10. It bottomed at a three-year low on August 5.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at .8970. Further resistance is at .9065.
Initial support is at .8890. The next floor is .8800. A long-term bottom is at .8765.

INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
 
 
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways              
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways