KBC Market Research Desk
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Facing positive macro data and rating confirmation - the Polish zloty firms below the EUR/PLN 4.40 level
The Polish zloty strengthened more than a percent against the euro as several supportive factors were in play yesterday.
First, the Polish currency continued to digest Friday's Fitch decision to keep country's rating assessment unchanged (while a part of the market expected a downgrade). Secondly, emerging markets almost fully shrugged off the Turkish coup. And last but not least – there were quite positive releases of the Polish hard macro data coming from the domestic labour market. While corporate wages grew strongly by 5.3% y/y in June (in real terms by more than 6%), the employment edged up by 3.1% y/y. This means that the growth of overall labour income has accelerated, which should support domestic private consumption and economic growth in Poland.
We will have a chance to assess the Polish macroeconomic situation even more thoroughly as industrial output and retails sales figures for June will be released later today. Should these releases confirm yesterday's positive surprises the case for better growth figures will be even stronger in Poland.
| Currencies | % chng | |
| EUR/CZK | 27.02 | 0.0 |
| EUR/HUF | 314.5 | -0.2 |
| EUR/PLN | 4.37 | -1.3 |
| EUR/USD | 1.11 | 0.3 |
| EUR/CHF | 1.09 | 0.3 |
| FRA 3x6 | % | bps chng |
| CZK | 0.25 | 0 |
| HUF | 0.79 | 1 |
| PLN | 1.67 | -4 |
| EUR | -0.34 | -2 |
| GB | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. 10Y | 0.41 | 0 |
| Hungary 10Y | 2.90 | 3 |
| Poland 10Y | 2.90 | -5 |
| Slovakia 10Y | 0.54 | -1 |
| CDS 5Y | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. | 41 | 0 |
| Hungary | 152 | 0 |
| Poland | 97 | 0 |
| Slovakia | 42 | 0 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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