- US employment leading indicators suggest that the July jobs’ creation will disappoint investors.
- Turmoil in different fronts in the US keeps the greenback as the weakest currency across the board.
- Dollar at risk of falling to fresh multi-month lows mainly against high-yielding currencies.
Things couldn’t be much worse in the US ahead of the release of the monthly Nonfarm Payroll report. A record economic contraction in Q2 coupled with a dovish US Federal Reserve last week, as the central bank remained on hold and passed the ball to lawmakers, which, by the way, can’t found common ground to agree on a new coronavirus aid-package.
Meanwhile, the pandemic keeps taking its toll on the US, with almost 5 million cases in the country and the death toll above 161K. The coronavirus spread gives no signs of receding, with the country reporting around 55,000 new cases in the last 24 hours. The cherry on the cake is the upcoming presidential election to take place in November this year, with all the political turmoil that it carries within.
Market’s expectations are that the US has added 1.6 million jobs in July, after adding 4.8 million in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to have shrunk from 11.1% to 10.5%, although the participation rate is also seen down, from 61.5% to 61.1%.
Terrible Leading indicators
June’s job creation was upwardly revised to 4.8 million, while in May the country added 2.6 million positions, still far from recovering the 22 million positions lost since March. While new jobs these last two months have been encouraging, in the wider view they are still too low.
In general, employment-related data ahead of July numbers have been disappointing. US employers announced 262,649 job cuts in the month, up 54% from June. The ADP Survey on private jobs’ creation printed 167K far below the 1.5 million expected.
Also, the sub-employment components from the ISM PMIs remain within contraction levels, with that of the Services PMI contracting for the fifth month in a row and that of the Manufacturing PMI printing at 44.3, better than the previous 42.1.
Another negative clue came from Consumer Confidence, as the Michigan Index shrank in the month due to resurgent coronavirus cases. The only home came from the JOLTS Job Openings, as the number of hires increased.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – Aug 7th, 2020
The greenback is the weakest across the board, and the NFP has little chances of turning the tide. Even a better-than-anticipated report could pass unnoticed in terms of trend. The number to beat that could give the greenback at least a temporal respite is that 4.8 million, the June revision. Such a number could trigger some dollar gains, although it seems unlikely that those could be permanent.
A worse-than-anticipated outcome, on the other hand, will likely boost the dominant trend, with high-yielding currencies the ones making the most out of it. Fresh monthly highs could be expected on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while gold also has the chance of reaching new record highs. Commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD may end up ranging, trapped between the dollar’s weakness and softening equities.
Canada will also publish its monthly employment report, which means that USD/CAD´s reaction will depend on the imbalances between both countries’ data.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD declines below 1.0700 as USD recovery continues
EUR/USD lost its traction and declined below 1.0700 after spending the first half of the day in a tight channel. The US Dollar extends its recovery following the strong Unit Labor Costs data and weighs on the pair ahead of Friday's jobs report.
GBP/USD struggles to hold above 1.2500
GBP/USD turned south and dropped below 1.2500 in the American session on Thursday. The US Dollar continues to push higher following the Fed-inspired decline on Wednesday and doesn't allow the pair to regain its traction.
Gold stuck around $2,300 as market players lack directional conviction
Gold extended its daily slide and dropped below $2,290 in the second half of the day on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield erased its daily losses after US data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower ahead of Friday's US jobs data.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Altcoins to pump once BTC bottoms out, slow grind up for now
Bitcoin reclaiming above $59,200 would hint that BTC has already bottomed out, setting the tone for a run north. Ethereum holding above $2,900 keeps a bullish reversal pattern viable despite falling momentum. Ripple coils up for a move north as XRP bulls defend $0.5000.
Happy Apple day
Apple is due to report Q1 results today after the bell. Expectations are soft given that Apple’s Chinese business got a major hit in Q1 as competitors increased their market share against the giant Apple.