GBP makes a comeback

From the UK last week we saw the pound gain back some of the losses incurred against the dollar and euro the week before after the BoE’s change monetary stance. Mixed unemployment data also had an impact as we saw, amongst that, average earnings fall from 3% to 3.2%. There was also a rise in people claiming unemployment benefits, but, unemployment was seen to fall to 5.3% so that helped balance the scales somewhat.

This week will be a more tumultuous one for the pound as we’ll see CPI inflation released which keeps the talk of an interest rate hike at an all-time high. Overall global growth is also of concern as it has an ultimate impact on whether the UK’s monetary policy needs amending or not in the near term. We will also see retail sales figures released which are expected to dip.

Europe was quiet last week in terms of data although no less turbulent with the single currency being swung around by events abroad. The only real heavy data we saw was German quarterly GDP which indicated a slowdown to 0.3% from 0.4%. We also saw the Greeks protesting over the next bailout batch when they ended up at loggerheads with their creditors over when and how the £2Bn amount is going to be paid. On top of this, we also saw Mario Draghi say that QE could continue until the end of next year on the back of weak global trade and weak inflation.

There won’t be much out for Europe in terms of economic announcements to get worked up about –all we’ll really see is German ZEW sentiment which has significant bearing on the Eurozone given Germany’s economic prominence. Later today we’ll see Draghi give a speech in Madrid, and then again at the end of the week in Frankfurt.

Last week in the US we saw dollar have a mixed time as it moved between 1.50 (interbank) and 1.52 against the pound, ending the week just above 1.5200 against GBP. More people were seen to file for unemployment insurance than were expected (276,000 versus 270,000), core monthly retail sales were seen to drop, and month PPI data also showed a drop off to -0.4% down from -0.5%.

This week we’ll see monthly CPI inflation data which is expected to make an improvement – if growth is in fact seen then it will certainly raise hopes of a rate hike sooner rather than later. There will also be FOMC meeting minutes, as well as Philly Fed manufacturing data at the end of the week.