Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics
The Nikkei saw another impressive day today with the index closing up +0.97% but at the same time the Yen continues to lose ground. In late US trading we have broken again the 103.50 level with the lose this week close to 3%, there are many rumors around BOJ intervention in the FX but all appears smooth so far but is more reacting to the weakness being worked into the Yuan as the PBOC plays with longer term refi’s. The Shanghai index managed a 0.35% gain on the day whilst the Hang Seng small a small loss (-0.17%).
The DAX did make many attempts throughout the day to move out of the red but alas it was not to happen. Closing down 0.6% it had a difficult time as inflation data remained unchanged and despite rumors of Deutsche Bank merging with Commerzbank and both shares closing 3% higher. The CAC and FTSE did have the occasional positive prints but neither managed to close up on the day. Oil really did not helps stocks today as its price declined 3% as expectations of a global slowdown continue to be voiced.
Main US indices hit the days lows just after lunch and spent the remainder of the day clawing their way back. The last day of the month has seen a traditionally quiet yet impressive summer performance with the DOW closing around 1% higher whilst the broader Russell 2k higher by over 2%. ADP stored no surprises for the market today releasing at +177k against a market consensus of +175k. Normally, we can use this as some kind of indicator for Fridays NFP’s but that was not to happen today. We do have data tomorrow but all eyes will firmly be on Fridays release.
Another quiet day in the Treasury market with US 10’s closing unchanged 1.57%. Interesting that Bunds started a sell-off today with many talking the rumored Deut Bank/Commerzbank a sign that they are finally addressing these issues. German bund closed -0.06% (-3bp), which closes the US/German 10yr spread at +163bp. Italy 10yr closed 1.14% (+4bp), Greece 7.93% (+1bp), Turkey 9.58% (-4bp), Portugal 3.01% (+2bp), Gilts closed 0.64%.
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