Marshall Gittler
Trading Analysis
USD/CAD
In a quiet European morning session for currencies Wednesday, the dollar was unchanged or lower against most of its major peers. It was slightly lower against CHF, EUR and GBP, in that order, while it was higher only against NOK. The dollar could reverse its early losses later in the day when US initial jobless claims come out later today. The market consensus is for the number to remain more or less unchanged, which would be consistent with a firming labor market. The 4 week moving average, considered a better measure of underlying labor market conditions, is expected to decline a bit, supporting the idea of broader strength of the US economy.
USD/CAD declined somewhat during the European morning Wednesday after finding resistance near the 1.1635 (R1) line. Bearing in mind our short-term momentum indicators, I would expect for the decline to continue at least until the 50-period moving average that provided a good support to the price action recently. A break below that moving average could extend the decline until our 1.1575 (S1) support level. The RSI stands just below its 50 line pointing down, while the MACD lies below its trigger line and seems willing to enter its negative territory. This signals accelerating bearish momentum, thus amplifying the case for a decline, at least temporarily. However, on the daily chart, the pair is still trading above both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, and above the light blue uptrend line drawn from back at the low of the 11th of July. Hence, I still see a longer-term uptrend and I would expect any possible future setbacks to provide renewed buying opportunities.
Support: 1.1575 (S1), 1.1550 (S2), 1.1510 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1635 (R1), 1.1670 (R2), 1.1715 (R3)
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Further losses retarget the 200-day SMA
Further gains in the greenback and a bearish performance of the commodity complex bolstered the continuation of the selling pressure in AUD/USD, which this time revisited three-day lows near 0.6560.
EUR/USD: Further weakness remains on the cards
EUR/USD added to Tuesday’s pullback and retested the 1.0730 region on the back of the persistent recovery in the Greenback, always against the backdrop of the resurgence of the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence.
Gold flirts with $2,320 as USD demand losses steam
Gold struggles to make a decisive move in either direction and moves sideways in a narrow channel above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield clings to modest gains near 4.5% and limits XAU/USD's upside.
Bitcoin price dips to $61K range, encourages buying spree among BTC fish, dolphins and sharks
Bitcoin (BTC) price is chopping downwards on the one-day time frame, while the outlook seen in the one-week period is a horizontal trade. In this shakeout moment, data shows that large holders are using the correction to buy up BTC.
Navigating the future of precious metals
In a recent episode of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference podcast, hosted by Jesse Day, guests Stefan Gleason and JP Cortez shared their expert analysis on the dynamics of the gold and silver markets and discussed legislative efforts to promote these metals as sound money in the United States.