Marshall Gittler
Trading Analysis
NZD/USD
The dollar traded unchanged or higher against all its G10 counterparts during the European morning, on Thursday. The greenback was higher against CHF, EUR and JPY and NZD, while it remained near its opening levels against AUD, SEK, NOK, GBP and CAD.
The Swiss franc was the main loser of this morning, after the Swiss National Bank said that the currency remains high and that is prepared to take further steps if necessary. Today, the SNB maintained its benchmark rate at 0% and pledged to defend the 1.20 floor of EUR/CHF.
EUR/USD continued its decline for a second day, after Fed officials indicated that the Bank could begin to raise rates about six months after the bond-buying program winds up.
The kiwi continued declining after New Zealand’s GDP slowed to +0.9% qoq in Q4 from a revised +1.2% qoq in Q3.
The dollar was also unchanged of higher against all the EM currencies we track, with the ruble recording the biggest losses as EU leaders gather in Brussels today to discuss additional sanctions against Russia after its intervention in Crimea.
NZD/USD fell sharply overnight reaching the blue trend line and the support barrier of 0.8525 (S1). A clear dip below that support zone, may extend the decline and target the next hurdle at 0.8430 (S2), near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the prevailing uptrend. The MACD oscillator seems ready to obtain a negative sign, shifting the momentum to the downside. Considering negative divergence between both our momentum studies and the price action, I believe it is a matter of time for the rate to break through the support of 0.8525 (S1).
Support: 0.8525 (S1), 0.8430 (S2), 0.8340 (S3)
Resistance: 0.8635 (R1), 0.8675 (R2), 0.8845 (R3)
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