Notes/Observations

- Markets brace of growing risk of Fed rate increases after a bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. CPI data.

- High inflation likely to be persistent rather than transitory.

- UK Q3 GDP data keeps chance of Dec BOE rate hike.

- Biden-Xi virtual summit said to be tentatively set for Monday; Nov 15th (no confirmations).

Asia

- Australia Oct Employment Change missed expectations and likely reflected lagged recognition of Covid-19 lockdowns across the prior three months (-46.3K v +50.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 4.8%e).

- Japan Oct PPI (CGPI) registered its highest annual pace since the Jan 1981 (Y/Y: 8.0% v 7.0%e).

- BOK Gov Lee noted that higher than expected CPI to continue for a while and hard to predict whether global inflation was temporary as hard to predict when global supply bottlenecks would ease; economic trend was in line with expectations with growth being steady with consumption quickly improving.

- Chin aproperty developer Evergrande [3333.HK] looked set to avert another default.

- China city of Shenyang will ease its curbs on home purchase rules (Note: later refuted).

- PBOC proposes change to debt-ratio rules to allow purchases of distressed property assets.

- China PBoC said to be considering opening a pathway for financially strained property firms to unload projects by allowing buyers to take over the assets without having the projects' associated debt affect their own debt ratio.

Europe

- ECB’s Holzmann (Austria) stated that the economic situation since the summer had deteriorated; It might take two years to reach the 2019 growth path. Inflation should be below 2% in 2023 or 2024.

Americas

- President Biden stated that Consumer prices were still too high, people were still unsettled about the economy because of higher prices.

- President Biden said to plan to sign $1.2T infrastructure bill on Monday, Nov 15th.

- Fed's Daly (non-voter, dove) stated that inflation was high; facing a challenge right now but likely a transitory period.

- US Senator Manchin (D-VW) said to possible delay Biden social spending agenda until next year over inflation worries.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.16% at 484.54, FTSE +0.37% at 7,366.89, DAX +0.18% at 16,096.05, CAC-40 +0.34% at 7,069.11, IBEX-35 -0.13% at 9,129.50, FTSE MIB +0.04% at 27,573.00, SMI +0.29% at 12,436.87, S&P 500 Futures +0.38%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly lower across the board but later turned to trade generally mixed; materials and financials sectors among the better performers; while consumer discreationary and energy sectors lagged; Poland closed for holiday; Skia acquires MBCC; Spie negotiation acquisition of Worksphere; Prophotonix to be acquried by Exaktera; Engie and Credit Agricole unit acquire Eolia; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include Deutsche Euroshop, Tapestry, Brookfield Asset Management and Pirelli.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Delivery Hero [DHER.DE] +2% (earnings), Burberry [BRBY.UK] -8% (earnings).

- Consumer staples: Sixt [SIX2.DE] -5% (earnings).

- Financials: Generali [G.IT] +1% (earnings).

- Healthcare: Merck KGaA [MRK.DE] -1% (earnings).

- Industrials: Siemens [SIE.DE] +2.5% (earnings; initial outlook), FLSmidth [FLS.DK] +8% (earnings; CEO to step down).

- Materials: ArcelorMittal [MT.NL] +2.5% (earnings), Johnson Matthey [JMAT.UK] -19% (trading update; CEO retires; exit business segment).

Speakers

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves stated that the current high level of inflation generally seen as transitory.

- German SPD leader Scholz stated that the pandemic still remained with us; needed additional measures to get through winter. Chancellor Merkel and State Premiers to meeting during week of Nov 15th to discuss the pandemic (**Reminder: Germany recently reported another COVID-19 record with almost 52K new cases for its 4th straight record high).

- EU Commission updated its Autumn Economic Forecasts which raised the EU-19 2021 inflation from 1.9% to 2.4% and raised the EU-19 2022 inflation from 1.4% to 2.2%. It set EU-19 2023 inflation at 1.4% (**Note: below ECB 2% target).

- EU Economic Commissioner Gentiloni (Italy): Economy was moving from recovery to expansion.

- EU's Dombrovskis stated that inflation should be closely monitored and policies adjusted if needed; Needed to address bottlenecks in the supply chain and surging.

- EU official noted that there was scope for finding shared solutions with the UK.

- Belarus President Lukashenko said to warn he could shutdown gas pipeline to EU; to respond robustly to any new sanction.

- US Treasury Sec Yellen said to have stressed importance of global supply chain issues revealed by the pandemic in recent meeting with Australia, New Zealand, Canada and UK counterparts.

Currencies/Fixed Income

- US Dollar Index at 15-month high in the aftermath of Wed’s US CPI data as markets reassessed its bets on an accelerated monetary tightening trajectory. Yields did climb across the front end of the curve.

- GBP/USD tested below the 1.34 for fresh 2021 lows following a slight miss in Q3 GDP data. Dealers noted that the data provided some headwinds into a Dec BOE rate hike as a slowing recovery and increasing inflation poised a troubling mix for policymakers.

- EUR/USD tested the 1.1440 in the aftermath of the US inflation data.

- USD/JPY holding above the 114.00 level by mid-session.

Economic data

- (SE) Sweden Oct PES Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.7% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Sept Current Account Balance: $1.7B v $1.3Be.

- (UK) Sept Monthly GDP M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e.

- (UK) Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.3% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.8%e.

- (UK) Q3 Preliminary Private Consumption Q/Q: 2.0% v 3.1%e; Government Spending Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.7%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q/Q: 0.8% v 2.4%e; Exports Q/Q: -1.9% v -1.5%e; Imports Q/Q: 2.5% v 3.4%e.

- (UK) Q3 Preliminary Total Business Investment Q/Q: 0.4% v 3.5%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 12.9% prior.

- (UK) Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.4% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.1%e.

- (UK) Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.1%e.

- (UK) Sept Construction Output M/M: 1.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 7.2% v 6.9%e.

- (UK) Sept Index of Services M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; 3M/3M: 1.6% v 1.9%e.

- (UK) Sept Visible Trade Balance: -£14.7B v -£14.4Be; Overall Trade Balance: -£2.8B v -£3.3Be; Trade Balance Non-EU: -£9.1B v -£7.4B prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Sept Total Mining Production M/M: -3.7% v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: -3.4% v +2.7%e; Gold Production Y/Y: -6.9% v +17.7% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: -7.5% v +1.5% prior.

Fixed income Issuance

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK3.70B in 3-month, 6-month and 9-month Bills.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK1.25B vs. SEK1.25B indicated in 2030 and 2032 I/L Bonds.

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.75B vs. €4.75-5.75B indicated range in 3-year and 7-year BTP Bonds.

- Sold €2.0B vs. €1.5-2.0B indicated range in 0.0% Aug 2024 BTP; Avg Yield: -0.16% v -0.27% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.58x v 1.65x prior (Sept 14th 2021).

- Sold €3.75B vs. €3.25-3.75B indicated range in new 0.45% Nov 2029 BTP; Avg Yield: 0.60% v 0.48%..

Looking ahead

- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell €1.0B in 2028 and 2031 IGB Bonds.

- OPEC Monthly Oil Report.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 1.75% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.41x prior (Oct 28th 2021).

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.8% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Oct Trade Balance: No est v -$3.6B prior.

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.2%e v 7.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.3%e v +1.8% prior.

- 06:45 (UK) BOE's Mann.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.2%e v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 5.5% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 3.2%e v 6.6% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.6%e v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: -4.1%e v -4.1% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Broad Retail Sales M/M: 0.0%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.9%e v 0.0% prior.

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 5th: No est v $623.2B prior.

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Sept Trade Balance: $18.5Be v $17.1B prior; Exports: $44.7Be v $43.2B prior; Imports: $26.7Be v $26.0B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (IE) ECB's Lane (Ireland, chief economist).

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 16.0%e v 22.9% prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 19.0%e v 32.0% prior.

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Overnight Rate by 25bps to 5.00%.

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct National CPI M/M 3.4%e v 3.5% prior; Y/Y: 52.0%e v 52.5% prior.

- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 15.5% prior.

- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Import Price Index M/M: No est v 2.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 26.8% prior.

- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Export Price Index M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 20.2% prior.

- 16:30 (NZ) New Zealand Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.4 prior.

- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank (BCRP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Reference Rate by 50bps to 2.00%.

- 21:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 22:00 (CN) China to sell 30-year Upsize Bond.

- 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.6%e v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.9%e v +16.1% prior.

- 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Q3 Current Account Balance (MYR): 16.5Be v 14.4B prior.

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1180 following the Fed’s decision

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1180 following the Fed’s decision

EUR/USD now picks up extra pace and revisits the 1.1180 region after the Federal Reserve decided to cut its interest rates by 50 bps at its event on Wednesday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD hits fresh tops near 1.3300 on weaker Dollar

GBP/USD hits fresh tops near 1.3300 on weaker Dollar

The Greenback is now accelerating its decline following the Fed’s decision to reduce its interest rates, sending GBP/USD to fresh tops in the 1.3290 zone.

GBP/USD News
Gold surrenders gains and drops to weekly lows near $2,550

Gold surrenders gains and drops to weekly lows near $2,550

Gold prices reverses the initial uptick to record highs around the $$2,600 per ounce troy, coming under renewed downside pressure and revisiting the $2,550 zone amidst the late recovery in the US Dollar.

Gold News
Federal Reserve set for first interest-rate reduction in four years amid growing bets of jumbo cut

Federal Reserve set for first interest-rate reduction in four years amid growing bets of jumbo cut

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower the policy rate after the September meeting. The revised Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks could provide important clues about the rate outlook.

Read more
UK CPI set to grow at stable 2.2% in August ahead of BoE meeting

UK CPI set to grow at stable 2.2% in August ahead of BoE meeting

The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will release August Consumer Price Index figures on Wednesday. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is one of the main factors on which the Bank of England bases its monetary policy decision, meaning the data is considered a major mover of the Pound Sterling.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures