Market Review
We have seen fairly choppy markets this morning following a pricing in move of Yellen's comments yesterday. The geo-political news flow out of Ukraine has been relatively subdued today and has 'tapered' off slightly, encouraging a lift in the S&P 500 with undertones of loose dollar weakness. The Russian military presence to the eastern border of Ukraine has held in number and position. A halt in the bellicose actions of the Russians may be enough to encourage a lift in risk assets but due to the continuous seizure of Ukrainian military installations it is highly unlikely to break to highs. In addition to this there has been no escalation of comments from Western leaders regarding Putin's hijacking of Crimea. This has further reinforced the market's view of complete uncertainty regarding risk sentiment. The SP has been capped technically by both the Pivot level and the high from yesterday's evening session at 1855.00, and Oil has tested the double top from the previous two sessions this morning and for now 10025 has capped the upside in the full contract. The EURUSD has moved lower to test the 1.38 handle, finding brief support at this level before drifting higher since. US10yr notes have been range-bound, moving in a similar fashion to a goldfish pacing back and forth in its tank. Crude oil has had a positive bias this morning and has tested the Friday/Monday at 100.24, which also today’s R1 and for now that has capped the upside to form a powerful triple top just above the $100 handle.Today's Fundamental View
German IFO data came out in line with expectations, with slightly lower headline and expectations but enough to warrant an "as expected" label. UK inflation numbers were in line and sparked a false break to the upside in Cable, dragging the EURUSD lower. Upcoming data points include the US housing price index at 1300, the Consumer confidence index at 1400 along side New Home Sales.Alternative View
Dovish comments from monetary policy makers may adversely affect the markets, as will any developments in Ukraine.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.