Nick Mastrandrea
Market Tea Leaves
US Dollar: June USD is Up at 99.805.
Energies: June'20 Crude Down at 32.00.
Financials: The June'20 30 year bond is Up 29 ticks and trading at 180.20.
Indices: The June SP 500 emini ES contract is 48 ticks Lower and trading at 2925.00.
Gold: The June '20 Gold contract is trading Up at 1736.50. Gold is 145 ticks Higher than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Down- which is normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
At this time all of Asia is trading Lower. Currently Europe is trading mainly Lower with the exception of the Milan exchange which is Higher at this time.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today:
-
No Major Economic News to speak of.
-
Lack of Major Economic news.
Treasuries
We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The S&P futures contract. The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 9 AM EST. The ZB hit a Low at around that time and the S&P moved Lower. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 9 AM and the S&P moved Lower at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a Low at around 9 AM EST and the S&P was moving Lower shortly thereafter. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 15 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. Please note: the front month for the ZB is now June '20. The S&P contract is now June '20 as well. I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.
Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform
ZB - June 2020 - 5/21/20
-637257399747613157.png)
SP - June 2020 - 5/21/20
Bias
Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias as the USD, Crude and the Bonds were all pointed Higher and this does not bode well for an Upside day hence the Downside bias. The markets didn't disappoint as the Dow dropped 102 points and the other indices lost ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Downside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
Well Memorial Day is here and as such it is the unofficial start of summer. We will see many beaches open to the public and hopefully they're wearing a mask. Whereas Memorial Day is loaded with celebration, the truth is it's a day to honor the war dead. So if you know a veteran, give them thanks. They bought the freedom we so richly enjoy. Yesterday we witnessed a news tsunami with 10 different economic reports and not all of them were bad. Existing Home Sales came in nicely and in fact beat the estimate. Today we will probably see traders heading for the exits early to get a jumpstart on the holiday weekend. As such we will be back on Tuesday, May 26th. Enjoy the holiday and stay safe!!!!
Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.
In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY holds near 155.50 after Tokyo CPI inflation eases more than expected
USD/JPY is trading tightly just below the 156.00 handle, hugging multi-year highs as the Yen continues to deflate. The pair is trading into 30-plus year highs, and bullish momentum is targeting all-time record bids beyond 160.00, a price level the pair hasn’t reached since 1990.
AUD/USD stands firm above 0.6500 with markets bracing for Aussie PPI, US inflation
The Aussie Dollar begins Friday’s Asian session on the right foot against the Greenback after posting gains of 0.33% on Thursday. The AUD/USD advance was sponsored by a United States report showing the economy is growing below estimates while inflation picked up.
Gold soars as US economic woes and inflation fears grip investors
Gold prices advanced modestly during Thursday’s North American session, gaining more than 0.5% following the release of crucial economic data from the United States. GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024 missed estimates, increasing speculation that the US Fed could lower borrowing costs.
Stripe looks to bring back crypto payments as stablecoin market cap hits all-time high
Stripe announced on Thursday that it would add support for USDC stablecoin, as the stablecoin market exploded in March, according to reports by Cryptocompare.
Bank of Japan expected to keep interest rates on hold after landmark hike
The Bank of Japan is set to leave its short-term rate target unchanged in the range between 0% and 0.1% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review meeting for April. The BoJ will announce its decision on Friday at around 3:00 GMT.