Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains on track to challenge record peaks

Gold Extends gains amid tariff concerns 

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its weekly rally on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive day of gains. The precious metal climbed above $2,760 per troy ounce for the firdt time since early November, driven by persistent unceratainty surrounding President Trump’s announcements, particulalry regarding to tariffs.

Somewhat limiting the metal’s appeal, the US Dollar (USD) regained part of its shine lost as of late, with the Dollar Index (DXY) regaining upside traction and bouncing off recent multi-week lows, while US yields traded in a mixed fashion across various maturity periods.

Still around Trump, he announced plans to impose tariffs on the European Union, Canada and Mexico, and revealed that his administration was considering a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The move, he claimed, was in response to fentanyl being trafficked from China to the United States through Mexico and Canada. 

However, these policies could complicate the outlook for the yellow metal. While gold is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, analysts believe that if Trump’s tariff-driven policies stoke inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) might be forced to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period, dampening gold’s appeal, as it is a non-yielding asset and tends to lose its shine in a high-rate environment. 

What’s next for Gold? 

Looking ahead, the market’s focus will likely remain on developments from the White House, especially in a light week for major economic data releases. Investors are also preparing for the Fed’s January 28–29 meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to stay in their 4.25%-4.50% range. 

As political uncertainty and central bank decisions loom large, gold remains a key asset to watch, with volatility likely on the horizon. 

Gold’s Technical Outlook 

In the near term, gold’s next major resistance is $2,763, the 2025 high reached on January 22. Beyond that, traders will target the all-time high of $2,790, recorded on October 31. If these levels are surpassed, Fibonacci projections suggest further upside milestones at $3,009, $3,123, and $3,288. 

On the downside, key support levels include December’s low of $2,582, November’s low of $2,536, and the 200-day moving average at $2,515. Deeper corrections could push prices toward $2,471 (the September low) or even $2,353 (July’s weekly low). 

Should a significant selloff occur, watch for levels around $2,286 (June low) and $2,277 (May low). The ultimate downside target for now stands at $1,984, the February 2024 low—a substantial retracement from current prices.

Gold daily chart