Saxo Team of Analysts - HK
Saxo Capital Market HK Ltd
Key developments in FX today
Today's action saw the USD attempting to follow through on a comeback attempt after the US Q2 Employment Cost Index release on Friday triggered an avalanche of USD selling. That experience will mean bad nerves for USD traders all week on each and every data release, though of course the chief focus will be on Friday's July jobs numbers.
GBP eased back lower after testing a bit higher as traders are unwilling to make a commitment to GBP positioning ahead of this Thursday's Bank of England bonanza, in which we get the meeting announcement (no move expected), the vote, the meeting minutes, and economic forecasts all at the same time under a welcome new regime of meeting day behaviour from the central bank. As if that wasn't enough, we'll also see the quarterly inflation report delivered by Governor Carney. EURGBP will look lower if the bank continues to tilt to the hawkish side and risk appetite rallies afresh, keeping a pro-cyclical focus. GBPUSD, meanwhile, will be more susceptible to the US data this week for direction. The latter pair has gone sideways.
CAD has been the weakest currency of late on the further dump in oil prices and a weak Canadian GDP number on Friday suggesting the country is mired in outright recession, and USDCAD set new decade-plus highs above 1.3100, the new local support.
AUD trading sideways ahead of an RBA meeting tonight that doesn't appear to be highly anticipated, but that may have a higher risk of negative rather than positive surprises (as the market already looks complacent on the RBA's declared "wait and see" stance.)
EURUSD
The "pump and dump" on Friday has likely frazzled traders' nerves as we await the key US data, crowned by Friday's payrolls number and the market attempts to price in or price out a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.
USD awaiting direction from data
USDCAD
USDCAD has jumped to new highs despite the inaction elsewhere as the oil price slide continues and the Canadian GDP data release on Friday suggest that Canada is in recession. There are few chart points up here to project as the bulls have full sway and the pair could continue to higher, especially if USD strength contributes on top of the CAD weakness. 1.3100 is the new support and the next focus could be 1.3250 and even 1.3400+.
The Canadian dollar has fallen to new lows against its US counterpart
AUDUSD
The AUDUSD chart is in need of a catalyst as we have been stuck in range for some time now. The bears may get what they want tonight from the RBA and help the chart lower toward 0.7000. The local resistance remains 0.7330/50.
The Aussie dollar could head lower tonight
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