• GDP expected to show the second quarter of economic contraction.
  • Investor sentiment has rebounded limiting the impact of negative growth.
  • Economic data has improved in several important categories.

The German Statistical Bureau will release its preliminary estimate for third quarter gross domestic product at 7:00 GMT on Wednesday November 13th, 2:00 EST on November 14th.  A revision to the figures will be issued on November 22nd.


Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have contracted 0.1% in the third quarter as it did in the second. Annual GDP in the third quarter will rise 0.9% from 2018 after a flat second quarter.

German GDP: Is the worst already over?

Growth in Germany is forecast to have contracted for the second straight quarter bringing Europe’s largest economy into recession but a sharp rebound in investor sentiment suggests that the downturn will be short and shallow.

The heavily export dependent German economy has been hard hit by the drop in global trade from the US China trade dispute and by concerns over the British exit from the European Union.

Gross domestic product, the widest definition of national economic activity, is predicted to have declined 0.1% in their third quartet following the same drop in the second. Two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth is the traditional definition of a recession. 

German GDP Q/Q


Germany has not had a recession since the financial crisis of a decade ago though it has come close twice with a negative quarter followed by a flat one (Q4 2013 -0.6%, Q1 2014 0.0%, Q3 2018 -0.2%, Q4 2018 0.0%).

ZEW Survey

The ZEW survey of financial experts which measures institutional investor attitudes saw a large increase in outlook in November. The economic sentiment measure recovered to -2.1 from October’s -22.8 and the August eight-year low of -44.1.  Sentiment specifically about the eurozone economy jumped to -1 from -23.5 reported ZEW.

Zew Economic Sentiment


Improving German Statistics

Other economic data appears to confirm that the pending US China trade deal and an orderly Brexit have helped to reverse economic trends.

Exports rose 1.5% in September after declining 0.9% in August. Imports rose 1.3% in September following August’s 0.1% increase and July’s 2.4% drop, hinting that the German consumer may be ready to resume spending.  Imports had fallen for four of the seven months back to March.



Factory orders also rose 1.3% in September following declines of 0.4% and 2.1% in August and July.

Factory Orders


US and Chinese officials have said a deal to reverse some of the tariffs imposed by both countries and settle a number of outstanding issues was in train. But US President Donald Trump cautioned recently that if the “phase one” deal was not signed tariffs could rise.

In Britain Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal appears to have a good chance of approval as his Conservatives lead in most polls for the December 12th election.


The German economy is the heart of the euro zone, weakeness translates quickly to the euro and interest rates. If Germany has already seen the worst of the slowdown then the outlook for the monetary union as a whole and the euro, especially with Italy and France performing better than expected, may be brighter than anticipated just two months ago. 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD off 7-month highs, still firmer as Tories hold the lead

GBP/USD retraces from the new seven-month highs of 1.3180 but remains strongly bid, as weekend polls have reaffirmed a solid lead for PM Johnson's Conservatives. Cable dropped on Friday amid upbeat US data.


EUR/USD steadying above 1.1050 amid upbeat German export data

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1050, attempting a recovery after Germany reported an increase in exports in October. EUR/UDS dropped sharply on Friday amid upbeat US Non-Farm Payrolls and weak German industrial output. 


Forex Today: US-Sino trade tensions prevail, Boris closer to victory, EUR/USD licking its wounds

Trade talks: President Donald Trump has called on the World Bank to stop lending to China, a move that may aggravate tensions, with only six days to go until Washington is set to slap new tariffs on Beijing. Negotiations continue.

Read more

Gold: Sidelined after biggest daily decline in four weeks

Gold is lacking a clear directional bias in Asia, having registered its biggest single-day decline in four weeks on Friday. China's data may embolden President Trump to take more aggressive measures. 

Gold News

USD/JPY in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range above mid-108.00s

USD/JPY was seen oscillating in a narrow band and consolidated last week’s losses. US-China trade uncertainties continued underpinning the JPY’s safe-haven status. Investors now seemed reluctant ahead of the latest FOMC monetary policy update.


Forex Majors