Quick Recap
The key highlight for me last night was Stanley Fischer, the Fed Vice Chair, saying that the weakness in Q1 growth is now part of what is becoming a seasonal pattern. That means he is expecting the rest of the year to look much better in terms of growth rates.
That’s an interesting take and I’m not sure I’m on board 100% with that view. But, what his comments do show is that the Fed is still on track to raise rates in 2015. I feel that they need to do this for symbolic as much as any other reason. But they do look like they feel certain to hike rates this year.
Last night, the impact of his comments was to stop the Aussie, Euro and others dead in their tracks – just when the rallies looked like they might accelerate. I’ve covered Fischer’s interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen in a Business Insider article this morning. It’s worth a read and the video a look.
Elsewhere US stock markets were down but only marginally. There is some talk that the current round of earnings is looking a bit weak on the revenue side even if earnings “beats” at 81% is well above the long run average of 63%. But realistically only 10% of S&P 500 have reported so far so it’s too early to get worried yet.
In Europe stocks were lower as greece stays in the headlines and German Finance Minister Schaeuble said nobody expects that there will be a solution’ for Greece in Apri
Crude was up a little but looks set to consolidate a little given news that Saudi production keeps climbing. Gold is up a little but trapped in a $20-40 range at the moment.
On the day
On the data front today it’s quiet in Australia but we get really important CPI data in the US tonight. Unemployment data is also out in the UK and in Canada retails sales and CPI are out.
Here’s the overnight scoreboard (8.36 am AET):
- Dow Jones down 0.04% to 18,105
- Nasdaq down 0.06% to 5,007
- S&P 500 down 0.08% to 2,104
- London (FTSE 100) down 0.51% to 7,060
- Frankfurt (DAX) down 1.9% to 11,998
- Paris (CAC) down 0.57% to 5,224
- Tokyo (Nikkei) up 0.08% to 19,885
- Shanghai (composite) up 2.71% to 4,194
- Hong Kong (Hang Seng) up 0.44% to 27,739
- ASX Futures (SPI June) -6 at 5,934
- AUDUSD: 0.7790
- EURUSD: 1.0760
- USDJPY: 119.03
- GBPUSD: 1.4933
- USDCAD: 1.2197
- Crude: $56.55
- Gold: $1,197
CHART OF THE DAY:
USDCAD: Big break out with huge data tonight when CPI is released.
Target in the 1.1950/1.20 zone.
Nymex Crude: Still looking for a longer term rally now that Crude has broken out but a retest toard support at $55/56 wouldn’t surprise
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