European Open Briefing


Asia Brief: Australia employment change 121,000 vs 12,000 expected, unemployment rate 6.1 % vs 6.3 % f/c. China CPI 0.2 % and 2.0 % vs 0.4 % and 2.2 % f/c. China PPI -1.2 % vs -1.1 % f/c. Australia MI inflation expectations 3.5 % vs 3.1 % previous. BoJ Governor Kuroda told Abe BoJ will do utmost to achieve price goal.

Global Markets: Nikkei up 0.75 %, Shanghai Comp gained 0.45 %, Hang Seng unchanged, ASX down 0.40 %. US 10 year yield at 2.53. Gold at $1248 (+0.25 %), Silver at $18.95 (+0.10 %), Crude Oil at $91.59 (-0.10 %).

FX Overview: AUD/USD rallied up to 0.9218 on a big surprise in Australian employment change, but weak Chinese inflation & PPI data, which were released at the same time, helped to cap the topside there. The pair has dipped to 0.9175, but is staying fairly bid for now. The key intraday support level is 0.9150, while resistance seen at 0.9220 with decent offers resting there + stops above. NZD/USD is approaching the session low of 0.8177 and there will be some intraday stops below. Should that level break, not much support seen until 0.8050. USD/CAD has risen from the NY low of 1.0935 and is posting fresh daily highs into the London open. Offers are resting in front of the 1.10 level, but the key level remains 1.1030. To the downside, good support at 1.0880, which needs to hold to keep bullish momentum intact.

USD/JPY is about to take out the 107.00 barrier after it spent the past three sessions consolidating. Asia reported good stops resting above, which may help accelerate the rally towards 107.20. Meanwhile, EUR/USD has been testing the 1.29 for a while and seems stuck in a range again. Extreme positioning is keeping shorts worried, but selling interest on rallies remains large. Cable has retraced after reaching the weekly high of 1.6229 in early Asia. We'll probably see another push lower to take out the trailing stops through 1.6175, but there will be good support around 1.6150.

Looking ahead, we have German CPI at 06:00 GMT, French CPI at 06:45 GMT, Swedish CPI at 07:30 GMT and the ECB Monthly Report at 08:00 GMT.

Good luck!

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