- The flash estimate for eurozone September HICP is due for publication next Monday. We see headline inflation decelerating to 1.2% yoy from 1.3%, with the core rate stable at 1.1% yoy. The slight downward move is expected to be mostly energy-driven.
- In Italy, we expect the preliminary CPI estimate for September to come in at -0.1% mom, 1.1% yoy (from 1.2% yoy in August). This outcome would be consistent with FOI ex-tobacco printing at 107.4 (+1.0% yoy).
- Important note: our inflation forecasts for Italy still include a 1pp VAT hike in October. The Italian government is rushing to find resources that will allow postponing the tax increase. The latest available information suggests that the government may succeed, but lacking any official communication up to date, we still pencil in the VAT hike in October. As a reference, the VAT hike is seen raising consumer prices in Italy by 0.3-0.4pp, and in the eurozone by less than 0.1pp.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.