EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Dollar soars on Trump’s victory

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0688

Former President Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, secured 277 electoral votes.
Speculative interest ignored encouraging European data, focus shifts to Fed’s decision.
EUR/USD is poised to extend its slide despite extreme oversold conditions in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair plummeted below the 1.0700 level during European trading hours on Wednesday, down roughly 250 pips from its Asian peak, as the US Dollar soared on the back of Donald Trump’s victory in the United States (US) presidential election. So far, Trump has secured 277 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 required to win the presidency.

The Republican candidate won Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, key swing states, and delivered a speech at the Palm Beach Convention Center, declaring victory before securing the required electoral votes.

Ahead of Wall Street’s opening, the pair pressures the intraday low as solid demand for the USD continues. In the meantime, stocks soared with US indexes poised to open with substantial gains, welcoming Trump’s victory.

Macroeconomic data is being ignored by market players, as encouraging Eurozone figures pass unnoticed. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) released the final versions of the October Services and Composite Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), which were upwardly revised. The EU services index was confirmed at 51.6, while the Composite PMI hit 50, following a 49.7 reading. The Eurozone also reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.6% on a monthly basis in September, down from a year earlier by 3.4%.

The US will not publish relevant data but the Federal Reserve (Fed) is undergoing a monetary policy meeting and will announce its decision on Thursday. Financial markets have priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, but given the US election result, the focus will likely be on Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and any adjustment to his tone given the new political scenario and its potential implications.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades at levels last seen in June, and despite the sharp slide, there are no technical signs it may change course anytime soon. In the daily chart, the pair plummeted below all its moving averages after meeting sellers around a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads firmly lower below the longer ones, in line with the strong downward momentum. Finally, technical indicators changed course and head south almost vertically within negative levels, reflecting sellers’ strength.

The near-term picture supports additional losses. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators maintain their firmly bearish slopes despite standing in oversold territory. Even further, the 20 SMA turned lower while the longer ones also gained downward traction. The June monthly low at 1.0667 is the immediate support level en route to the 2024 low at 1.0600.

Support levels: 1.0665 1.0630 1.0600

Resistance levels: 1.0715 1.0760 1.0800

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3550 after weak UK jobs data

GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3550 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, against a forecast of 4.8%, while Employment Change arrived at 83K in the same period versus 147K previous. Weak UK labor data keep the British Pound under pressure, driving the pair lower.

EUR/USD stays below 1.1600 despite upbeat sentiment data

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades below 1.1600 in the European session on Tuesday, even after the data from the Eurozone and Germany highlighted improving economic sentiment in August. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere as tensions in Middle East remain high, making it difficult for the pair to turn north.

Gold sticks to losses below $4,400 as USD recovers further from two-month low

Gold remains depressed below the $4,400 mark through the first half of the European session, snapping a two-day winning streak amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices back the case for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.

Pi Network holds steady amid app studio costs surge to push user adoption

Pi Network extends a consolidation range capped below $0.0900 holding above the $0.0839 support level. PI token remains under pressure as the Core Team pushes for real user adoption by raising costs for AI-powered app creation, effective from August 24. Leverage-linked risk exposure eases as Open Interest declines despite an increase in social interest.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.