EUR/USD Forecast: FOMC statement probable impact


The EUR/USD pair trades in a quiet range this Wednesday, with investors waiting for the FED, later in the American afternoon. But they may be disappointed, as no major announcements are expected today. There will be no press conference accompanying the released statement, neither new economic projections. Besides, FED’s chair Janet Yellen said in their latest meeting that the FOMC can ‘be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy’ and that the committee was unlikely to raise rates before late April. Therefore, focus will be in the tone of the statement and any subtle change in wording: if the FED expresses concerns over the global slowdown that may be understood as a delay in rate hikes and hit the greenback badly across the board, considering longs stand at record highs and the currency is extremely overbought against many rivals. If however the tone is confident and slightly hawkish, the greenback will likely resume its bullish trend.

From a technical point of view and in the short term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is stuck around 1.1365, the 50% retracement of its latest bearish run, whilst indicators lost their upward potential and stand flat reflecting latest consolidative stage. Daily basis, the pair has so far established a lower high at 1.1381, and it would take a price acceleration through it to see the pair extending up to 1.1440, 61.8% retracement of the same rally. The immediate support comes at 1.1306, 38.2% retracement of the same rally, with a break below it exposing the 1.1240/50 price zone.

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