Having posted a fresh year low of 1.2834 post FED meeting, the pair maintains the overall bearish bias, with today’s recovery seen as corrective. The 4 hours chart shows price well below the daily ascendant trend line broken yesterday, with 20 SMA now offering dynamic resistance around 1.2920 and indicators steady in negative territory, with RSI turning lower after correcting oversold levels.
While the longer term has become clearer bearish, in the short term, as long as 1.2900/20 caps the upside, risk is towards a retest of mentioned low and lower, eyeing an approach to the 1.2800 figure. Once below this last, 1.2740 comes next. A recovery above 1.2920 on the other hand may see the pair correcting up to 1.2960 price zone, where it will complete a pullback to the broken trend line. Such recovery will hardly signal a bottom, but with put price back in its latest range and therefore diminish chances of a steady downward continuation.
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