The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/GBP, EUR/USD and USD/JPY as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/GBP Forecast: Minimum target achieved. With the passing of the March low point, 0.7015, at least the minimum target for the bear triangle, a new low, has been fulfilled. The theoretical target for the bear triangle however remains the same as earlier, 0.6735 – 0.6545. Short term there’s a possibility that the market at least partially will fill the weekend gap before continuing lower.
EUR/USD Forecast: To fill or not to fill the weekend gap? Following the three days of consolidation (it normally takes ~three days to digest a falling benchmark candle) below the mid body point the market has now (with a little help) exited the bear flag created since the March low. The normal thing for the market to do now is to try to fill (partially or full) the weekend gap. A downside rejection from the 55d ma band will add to the already bearish picture.
USD/JPY Forecast: Make or break? Contrary to other dollar pairs USD/JPY gapped lower down into the very important 122.46 – 122.04 support zone. The area still remains a key reference point to the near/medium term development as a break below the latter support will argue that a possible more lasting top has been put in place. There’s also a rather large net yen position (CoT report) that has been established not far from current levels so a break lower will most likely trigger a wave of stop losses.
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