According to the latest edition of the Beige Book, the economy continued to expand across most regions from early April to late May and the feeling is that the economy is shaking off its winter weakness, notes SEB Group.
"Moreover Districts are generally optimistic about the future: indeed “optimism” appears 19 times while “pessimism” only once and the “strong” iterations appeared more than 100 times compared to 76 back in April. Since the weak iterations were 52 in June vs 44 in April, the balance between strong and weak words improved markedly. While weather was a huge factor in the previous edition with 71 mentions, that number was slashed to 16 in the June Beige Book," SEB adds.
"So after the very weak first quarter, we are optimistic with respect to real GDP growth in the current second quarter and beyond. As such, our forecast still is for liftoff in September," SEB argues.
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