Scotland has voted to remain in the United Kingdom and GBP has already unwound its pre-referendum discount, says Barclays Capital.
"We had estimated that GBPUSD and EURGBP were both trading at roughly a 1-2% discount on referendum risk. Both pairs have seen roughly a 1.5% appreciation of GBP and sharp decline in implied volatility," Barclays argues.
"We continue to like EURGBP lower based both on our above-market expectations for Bank of England rates and our expectations for generalized EUR weakness. But GBPUSD’s upside likely is limited by EURUSD downside; hence we see little value in GBPUSD above these levels," Barclays adds.
"With that event risk now out of the way, we think markets will refocus on fundamentals and key market themes. As we highlighted last week when we revised our EURUSD forecast significantly lower, we expect that focus to fall on EURUSD," Barclays projects.
In its portfolio, Barclays maintains a short EUR/USD position from 1.3280 targeting 1.2815.
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