The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Now a confirmed bull divergence. The next attempt higher took place already on Friday (and with the passing of 1.3399 the alternative path, the short term bear triangle, was blocked) and an impulsive move pushed prices almost up to the first more important resistance, 1.3445. Underpinned by the now confirmed bull divergence we however think that there should be more upside potential than 1.3445 and the mid body point of the latest falling monthly benchmark candle, 1.3542, looks like a viable target.
EUR/GBP: Impulsively higher. With the acceleration higher on Friday the market ended the week not only with a bullish daily candle but also creating a weekly one (a long lower spike showing defeated sellers). There is however quite a lot of resistance in a 0.7997/0.8007/0.8028 range but also the potential for a rather bullish medium term message should those be cleared. With the € index on the verge of exiting a falling wedge there’s probably a more general € reaction higher underway.
AUD/USD: Seeking a mid body reaction. The failed move below Thursday’s low point completed an hourly 5-wave cycle from 0.9376 triggering an upside reaction that we think has the potential of reaching the mid body point of Thursdays falling benchmark candle, 0.9313 (where fresh offers should be lining up).
EUR/CHF: Risk on – swissy off… As risk appetite return to markets Fri, there “was no need to hold excessive Swiss francs on the books. The sharp intraday U-turn added a daily “Doji” and extension towards a first-hand objective at 1.2155 seems highly likely, but also over 1.2178 is needed to adopt a short-term bullish view on the pair. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.2128 & 1.2153.
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