The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Correction credentials still in place. Yesterday’s attempt to kick off an upside correction stalled already just below the first resistance, 1.3399. The setup with the potential bull divergence is however still in place so an upside correction should certainly not be written off. An alternate hourly wave count (bear triangle) holds the door open for a final push lower before making a new correction attempt.
USD/JPY: Aiming next at the B-wave low. Yesterday’s reaction higher ended at 102.46, well below the maximum allowed 102.93. The following impulsive decline continues to add confidence to our bearish case. The next major event should be a test of the B-wave low at 101.06, the confirmation point for an extended move lower to a fresh yearly low. EUR/JPY also trading in a clearly bearish manner calling for a soon arrival in the 134.20/40 support zone.
AUD/JPY: A larger move lower has begun. Given that both USD/JPY as well as AUD/USD has entered downside phases with considerably losses underway we of course find AUD/JPY highly interesting. The break of the July low at 94.35 was probably the starting point of an accelerating decline towards next the bear flag floor at 90.80-ish.
EUR/CHF: Geopolitical rush into the swissy. Failure at the high end of the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band and a short-term 127.2% Fibo extension ref earlier is taking its toll when Geopoliticals turn to the worse. Breaks below earlier supports at 1.2133 & 1.2123 expose the yearly low at 1.2102. In swissy terms the move has created an intraday stretch to deal with, so a rebound to 1.2140 seems necessary to do something about this first.
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