Major Events that Will Shape EUR/USD Pair

EUR/USD had an excellent week, breaking decisively to levels last seen in November 2011. Is 1.40 the next target? Or will the common currency take a break now? German retail sales, inflation and employment data, consumer sentiment in France and Germany and GDP in Spain. Check out these events, on our weekly outlook. Here is an outlook for these events among others for EUR/USD.

Tuesday

GfK German Consumer Climate: at 0700hrs. German consumer confidence advanced to its highest level in six years reaching 7.1 in October, from 7.0 in the prior month, in line with market forecast. Strong consumer spending lifted growth in 2013, increasing confidence among consumers for the next 6 months ahead. Angela Merkel’s reelection will also boost confidence in the next reading. A rise to 7.3 is expected now.

Wednesday

German CPI: German inflation was flat for the third consecutive month in September, supporting domestic consumption in Europe’s strongest economy. The yearly inflation rate reached 1.6%, in line with estimates. The low unemployment rate in Germany is also contributes to growth.

Spanish Flash GDP: at 0800hrs. The Spanish economy came closest to expansion in the second quarter, contracting only 0.1% from a 0.5% drop in the first quarter. However domestic demand and consumer spending are still sluggish, providing little hope for a speedy recovery. Spanish economy is expected to expand 0.1%.

German Unemployment Change: at 0855hrs. German unemployment edged up unexpectedly in September with an addition of 25,000 unemployed, after a 9,000 increase in August. However unemployment remains at the lowest level since reunification. A rise of 1,000 unemployed is expected now.

Retail PMI: at 0910hrs. Retail PMI in Eurozone declined to 48.6 in September, after reaching expansion in the previous month. German retail sales edged up at the weakest rate in four months, indicating the Eurozone retail sales were fragile in August, largely due to a reverse in France.

Thursday

German Retail Sales: at 0700hrs. German retail sales climbed 0.5% in August, following a 0.2% decline in July, indicating that a recovery in Europe’s No. 1 economy is gathering pace. Economists expected a larger gain of 0.9%. Sales picked up 0.3% from a year earlier. Consumer climate is on a growth trend contributing to economic growth. Another rose of 0.5% is anticipated now.

French Consumer Spending: at 0745hrs. French consumer spending dropped in August 0.4% following a 0.4% increase in July, led by food and energy declines. Consumer spending declined 0.1% on a yearly base in August. However, durable goods gained 0.1% and household goods climbed 0.4%. Textiles also jumped 1.3% on the month. A gain of 0.2% is anticipated.

Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate: at 0900hrs. Italian Jobless Rate rose to an all-time high of 12.2% in August from a revised 12.1% in July. A further rise to 12.4% jobless rate is expected this time.

CPI Flash Estimate: 1000hrs. The annual rate of inflation in the euro zone declined to the lowest level in three and a half years, rising 1.1% in September, from 1.3% in the previous month, indicating the European Central Bank will continue to pouring further stimulus into the region’s fragile economy if it deems it necessary. Annual inflation is expected to rise 1.1%.

Unemployment Rate: at 1000hrs. The euro zone unemployment rate remained unchanged in August, better than the rise to 12.1% forecasted by analysts, suggesting the moderate economic recovery started to impact the labor market. Unemployment rate is expected to decline to 12.0%.