The dollar trade stable in thin trading due to Good Friday and Easter holidays

Good Morning,

- The dollar trade stable in thin trading due to Good Friday and Easter holidays, release of U.S. employment data later on Friday may give reasons for some big move.

- U.S. stocks climbed on Thursday after two sessions of losses.

- Many European markets will be closed from Friday to Monday for the Easter, reopening on Tuesday. Also most U.S. markets will be closed today when the non-farm payrolls report will be released. It is expected to show an increase of 245,000 jobs in March, following a gain of 290,000 in February.

- Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment. ‘’We are a Left-wing government. If we have to choose between a default to the IMF or a default to our own people, it is a no-brainer,’’ says senior Greek official. Greece is drawing up drastic plans to nationalise the country's banking system and introduce a parallel currency to pay bills unless the eurozone takes steps to defuse the simmering crisis and soften its demands. Sources close to the ruling Syriza party said the government is determined to keep public services running and pay pensions as funds run critically low. It may be forced to take the unprecedented step of missing a payment to the International Monetary Fund next week.

- Morgan Stanley on EUR/USD: "EUR weakness has been driven by several factors, such as the ECB’s QE operations and the growing use of EUR as a global funding currency, both for portfolio and business investment," MS adds. While these EUR-bearish factors are set to continue, a question that is now being asked by MS clients is what will be the trigger for the next leg of the EUR decline? "We believe the answer lies with the major global risk factors – the most important for EUR being the developments in Greece," MS answers. "Indeed, we note that EUR/USD has recently changed behavior once again, suggesting that it is not just portfolio and funding flows driving the currency. EUR now appears more exposed to global risks factors. We see Greece as the most likely source of renewed risk for EUR, having the potential to accelerate and extend the bearish momentum,". The risks of a mishap or accident taking Greece closer to the exit from the eurozone have been increasing since mid-March, in our view," MS adds. As a result, MS now see an increased risk of EUR/USD bear case scenario – 0.90 for year-end – being achieved. MS' EUR/USD year-end forecast currently stands at 1.05.

- Minutes released yesterday from the ECB's March 5 meeting showed monetary policymakers agreed to "remain firm" in implementing their quantitative easing programme, even though the euro zone's economic outlook was improving.

- Japan service sector activity falls for second straight month.

- Mixed data in HSBC/Markit China Services Purchasing Managers' Index. They showed the services sector expanded in March but growth in employment and new business fell to their lowest in at least eight months, in yet another sign that the weak Chinese economy may need more policy aid.

- Brent oil fell nearly 4 percent on Thursday after a preliminary pact between Iran and global powers on Tehran's nuclear program

- A framework accord to curb Iran's nuclear program forged on Thursday could eventually allow Tehran to reclaim lost ground in the global oil market. Yet the deal all but guarantees that cannot happen before next year. By ensuring that sanctions remain intact until Western powers are satisfied Tehran is adhering to the terms, and giving negotiators until June 30 to hammer out a comprehensive agreement, the deal offers little chance for any significant increase in exports until 2016.

Have a nice Weekend !