EUR/USD refuses to go down

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD refuses to go down

“The prospect of additional sanctions against Russia is also a potential negative factor for the euro. We do not see the euro as a safe haven from recent developments in Russia/Ukraine, especially given Europe's high level of exposure to the region.”

- Morgan Stanley (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  For the time being the single European currency is reluctant to decline, even though it has just breached one of the key support lines, namely 1.35. Right now the pair is facing the monthly S1 at 1.3436, but this level is unlikely to hold out for long. The next obstacle could be 1.3369, but there is a real chance of EUR/USD dropping down to the 2013 lows at 1.28 eventually, regardless of a half of monthly indicators being bullish.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  There are more people in the SWFX market reckoning the Euro is too cheap at the moment, namely 56% of the traders. However, the currency may soon come under selling pressure—67% of pending orders are to get rid of EUR in favour of the Greenback.

GBP/USD fell to 55-day SMA

“Another encouraging slate of U.S. numbers will be positive for the U.S. dollar. There’s little to suggest that we’re going to see a shift in dollar sentiment going into next week.”

- Barclays (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Although a breach of the resistance on Jun 30 represented by the 2009 high was considered to be a bullish sign, in the end the Sterling proved to be unable to sustain a rally. Right now GBP/USD is testing 1.6975/50 (monthly PP and 55-day SMA), but there is a high probability of the exchange rate falling down to the 17-month up-trend, monthly S1 and 100-day SMA at 1.6893/32. However, the weekly and monthly studies are mostly pointing upwards.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Along with the depreciation of the British Pound there is a decreasing amount of traders considering currency to be overvalued. During the last five days the share of short positions has fallen from 74% down to 63%.

USD/JPY re-tests monthly pivot point

“Selling of sterling, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar against the yen is helping prevent a further rise in dollar/yen. Profit-taking in such yen crosses is a key driver, rather than trades in dollar/yen itself.”

- State Street (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Not without some difficulties, but USD/JPY managed to reach the resistance at 101.83/73. However, despite the monthly technical indicators giving ‘buy’ signals, the pair may not advance further. The supply area the U.S. Dollar is facing is formed by the 55-day SMA, monthly PP and up-trend, making it unlikely for the currency to cross. Even if the price does rise, there will also be the 100 and 200-day SMAs respectively at 102 and 102.50 standing in the way.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  A rally seen yesterday apparently encouraged some of the bulls to make a bet on further appreciation of the Buck—their share went from 70% to 74%. As for the orders, 59% are to buy and 41% are to sell the U.S. Dollar against the Yen.

USD/CHF to preserve momentum

“Our main interest is, how are prices developing in Switzerland? The franc cap remains our central policy tool for the foreseeable future from this perspective.”

- Thomas Jordan, SNB (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook

  USD/CHF seems to be already taking a break in view of the coming weekend, as it is making no progress after setting foot above the resistance at 0.90. This fact should result in the currency pair rising up to this year’s peak at 0.9156 and potentially even higher. And while the weekly technical indicators say it is possible, the monthly studies warn that this might not be the case. Still, given the Buck’s performance lately, the outlook is bullish.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Already substantial difference between the amounts of bullish and bearish market participants has grown even larger since the previous report, as the percentage of the former increased from 71% to 74%.