EUR/USD approaches main support

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD approaches main support

“The news about Ukraine dominates markets.”

- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The Euro is getting closer and closer to the key support level at 1.35, which has a chance of stopping the current sell-off and initiating a recovery. However, there will still be tough resistances lying overhead, such as the 200-day SMA at 1.37 and major down-trend at 1.3850. These obstacles are unlikely to let the common currency appreciate in the long run. And if 1.35 fails to underpin the price, it could potentially expose 2013 lows, namely 1.28.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Today there are relatively more long positions than yesterday (52% against 51%), but overall the sentiment remains neutral towards EUR/USD. Meanwhile, 50 pips from the spot the buy orders dominate with 65% of the market.

GBP/USD stays directionless

“The bigger picture hasn't changed. It's still looking very positive for the UK economy and therefore bullish for the British pound and I would expect next week's GDP data to add to that story.”

- Nawaz Ali, Western Union (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Even though volatility of GBP/USD increased this week, none of the significant levels have been breached yet. According to the technical indicators, the Pound should eventually gain bullish momentum and rally to the upper boundary of the upward-sloping channel at 1.74. The near-term positive outlook is secured by the support at 1.7042, but in the longer-term perspective 1.69 is likely to play a more important role.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  At the moment 74% of the SWFX market participants reckon the current price of the Sterling to be excessive, as they are holding short positions. Concerning the orders, there is no large difference between the buy (49%) and sell (51%) ones right now.

USD/JPY returns to 101

“U.S. Treasury yields declined on heightened geopolitical woes and hurt dollar/yen, which has a high correlation with yields.”

- Praevidentia Strategy (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  USD/JPY was once again thrown back to the support line of the descending triangle it has been forming since the beginning of this year. For the time being the pair keeps bouncing off the demand at 101, suggesting there is a possibility of the monthly technical studies turning out to be correct in the end. The bulls seem to be incapable to realise this scenario, but a close above 102, on the other hand, would confirm Dollar’s bullish intentions.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The situation in USD/JPY in terms of the sentiment and distribution between the buy and sell commands is largely unchanged. Presently 75% of positions are long and 58% of orders are placed to purchase the Buck.

USD/CHF wavers in face of 0.90

“If [U.S.] macroeconomic conditions continue to improve at the current pace, the normalization process may need to begin sooner rather than later.”

- James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook

  As suspected, USD/CHF is now facing a supply area that is unlikely to give in easily to the bulls, as it successfully stopped advancement of the Greenback last quarter. Unless the rate gains a solid foothold above 0.90 in the nearest future, there is going to be a decline, possibly down to the monthly PP and 200-day SMA near 0.8920. Additional support is provided by the 100-day SMA at 0.89, and a failure here would endanger 2014 lows at 0.87.

• Traders’ Sentiment
  
  The market is refusing to change its attitude towards the U.S. Dollar. There are still 71% of traders believing the currency is going to outperform the Swiss Franc. Meanwhile, there is no difference between the amounts of the buy and sell orders set on the pair.