Aussie rocked by global instability and tumbling commodity prices

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar plunged through 0.7450 on Tuesday touching overnight lows of 0.7397. The Aussie has suffered a remarkable and dramatic sell off since breaking lower late Friday as global uncertainty and tumbling commodity prices force investors toward haven assets. Copper fell to 6 year lows while nickel and iron ore tumbled and oil prices plunged a further 4% on Tuesday as concerns over Chinese equities and a rout on the stock market dampened global demand expectations. Throw in the ever unfolding Greek credit crisis and market appetite for risk is all but evaporated.  The RBA offered little support as markets largely ignored the central bank’s decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance having priced in the pronouncement. Attentions will again turn offshore for direction with little available on the domestic economic docket. Having broken key technical supports the Aussie is poised to enter a deeper bearish trend with new lows ranging toward 0.72.

• We expect a range today of 0.7330 – 0.7530

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar broke fresh lows Tuesday touching 0.6619 before finding support. The Kiwi has suffered from a shift in risk appetites as Chinese stock-market concerns, collapsing commodity prices and the unresolved European debt crisis weigh on commodity based and emerging market currencies. With no domestic data available to drive direction the NZD remains at the mercy of greater currency flows and will struggle to break outside its current bearish channel.

• We expect a range today of 0.6550 – 0.6720

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound edged lower Tuesday on the back of a softer than anticipated manufacturing production report and safe haven currency flows. A crumbling Chinese stock market and unresolved Greek debt crisis have forced market volatility to new levels while global uncertainty is rife and investors are looking safety in USD, CHF and JPY. With Wednesday’s annual budget guiding domestic direction we expect Sterling to continue taking cues from broader global trends.

• We expect a range today of 2.0575 – 2.0925 

Majors:

The U.S dollar pitched higher through trade on Tuesday touching 5 week highs as investors sought haven assets. Market uncertainty and volatility is rife amidst the ever unfolding Greek debt saga, Chinese stock market concerns and tumbling commodity prices; forcing investors away from commodity based and emerging market currencies. The Greenback found additional support in a stronger than anticipated trade balance report which saw the gap between exports and imports shrink to 41.9 billion. Having advanced more than 1.5/% against the Euro this week the USD touched 6 week highs and will likely continue to benefit from haven plays whilst the ongoing credit crunch remains unresolved. The Euro struggled as European equities slumped and Greece appeared no closer to reaching a compromise that would allow creditors to extend long term support. European Finance Ministers and officials voiced their frustrations throughout a series of meetings in Brussels on Tuesday complaining that Greece had failed to bring forth any new proposals suggesting a long term deal was still open but compromises needed to be made. Despite existing capital controls Greek banks are fast running out of cash with ATM’s expected to run dry by weeks end. In this light the urgency to strike a deal becomes paramount and at time of writing it appears last minute rescue packages are being drawn up. With FOMC meeting minutes dominating the macroeconomic calendar attentions remain with the Greece and its creditors as the primary source of directional impetus through trade into the end of the week.   

Data releases:

• AUD: No Data
• NZD: No Data 
• JPY: Current Account, Bank lending y/y and Economy Watchers Sentiment
• GBP: Halifax HPI m/m, FPC Meeting Minutes and Annual Budge Release
• EUR: No Data  
• USD: Building permits m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, 10 Year Bond Auction, FOMC Meeting Minutes and FOMC Member Williams Speaks.