Will inflation become a headache for Policy makers?

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar is higher by 0.4 percent this morning notching up some impressive gains when valued against its US counterpart overnight. Whilst the majority of markets re-opened following the extended Easter break there was only second tier data releases on hand overnight providing very little for investors to trade off. Having traded between a 24 range of 0.9321 – 0.9376 of critical importance today will be the release of the headline inflation number where is expected prices to have risen by 0.8 percent during the first three months of this year, a number which would tip the annual rate to 3.2 percent. Should the CPI reading exceed expectation it’s likely the Australian dollar will once again test highs up above the 94 US cents mark as markets begin to price in a change in monetary policy in response. Stronger this morning the Australian dollar currently buys 93.63 US Cents.

• We expect a range today of 0.9320 – 0.9410

New Zealand Dollar:

In the absence of any meaningful data flows during the early parts of this week broader risk sentiment has been bolstered by US equity markets which have now experienced six consecutive day’s worth of gains, it’s longest rally since September last year. With corporate earnings surpassing expectation the New Zealand dollar has managed to capture 0.3 percent worth of gains when valued against its US Counterpart running out of steam at an eventual high of 0.8619. Whilst stronger this morning at rate of 0.8597 some second tier data releases today in the form of visitor arrivals and Credit Card spending should keep investors occupied ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision where its expected policy makers will raise the benchmark cash rate from 2.75 percent to 3 percent.

• We expect a range today of 0.8960 – 0.8540

Great British Pound:

It’s been an impressive 24 hour period for the Great British Pound which has managed to notch up 40 basis points worth of gains when valued against its US Counterpart whilst also rallying to its highest point versus the Euro in over seven-weeks.  Ahead of minutes tonight which are expected to show Bank of England are moving closer to raising borrowing costs, an accelerated growth outlook will only further raise the expectation of higher rates sooner. Stronger against the Greenback at 1.6823 the Sterling was unable to keep pace with a stronger Australian dollar (1.7960) and New Zealand dollar (1.9551)

• We expect a range today of 1.7930 – 1.7990

Majors:

The subdued tone across markets continued overnight that is despite the fact financial centres returned to full operation following the extended holiday break. Whilst markets have continued to shrug off lurking unrest in the Ukraine in general six consecutive sessions worth of gains across US equity markets have ensured an optimistic mood.  With numbers also showing the sale of existing homes within the world’s largest economy also beat forecast during March further data prints later in the week specifically New Home Sales data and Durable Goods numbers should both garnish a moderate degree of interest from investors. Opening in familiar territory this morning the Greenback is unchanged against the Yen (102.562) and weaker against the Euro (1.3804)

Data releases

• AUD: CPI q/q,  
• NZD: Visitor Arrivals m/m, Credit Card Spending y/y
• JPY: No data today
• GBP: MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, CBI Industrial Order Expectations
• EUR: No data today
• USD: New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories