AUD higher on weaker than anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls

Australian Dollar:

The Australian Dollar has maintained recent gains as US job’s numbers failed to meet bullish market expectations. In what was a relatively quiet day domestically investor’s eyes were keenly focused on US jobs numbers as a marker for further direction. Despite adding 192,000 new jobs, a relatively strong reading, analysts were disappointed having tapped a 200K increase. The lower reading lead to a sell off in USD and the AUD jumped higher pushing back through 0.9250 and momentarily breaching 0.93 before ending the week higher at 0.9283. With little economic data available across the board we can expect recent ranges to be maintained throughout Monday trading while eyes turn Tuesday’s NAB Business Confidence and Thursday’s employment data for further guidance.      

• We expect a range today of 0.9240 – 0.9310

New Zealand Dollar:

Much like its antipodean counterpart the New Zealand dollar traded higher late Friday touching levels above 0.86 as US Non-Farm Payroll numbers failed to meet market expectations. Analyst expectations of a 200K – 210K addition to the US jobs pool were not fulfilled as the March report showed a stable 192,000 increase. The poorer than expected showing sent the USD lower and helped the Kiwi recover some of the losses made earlier in the week as the higher yielding unit jumped 50+ points from 0.8536 to highs of 0.8604. With little available on the domestic calendar today focus shifts to Business Confidence numbers due tomorrow.

• We expect a range today of 0.8520 – 0.8610

Great British Pound:

The Sterling traded within a relatively tight 50 point range throughout Friday with little domestic economic data available. With the no data due out Monday attention will shift to Manufacturing and Industrial production numbers due Tuesday for further direction. The Pound currently trades in the middle of recent ranges and analyst now look toward Thursday’s rate announcement, accompanying statement and asset purchase facility reports for any indication the BoE and MPC will look to move early in adjusting interest rates higher.  

• We expect a range today of 1.7820 – 1.7950  

Majors:

The USD slid against a basket of major and emerging market currencies on Friday as Non-Farm payroll numbers wrote in marginally below analysts’ expectations. Despite showing sold gains for a 2nd consecutive month the March job’s report missed the anticipated 200K mark with 192,000 new jobs added while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. The somewhat disappointing reading lead to a short term Greenback sell ending a three day run of gains and saw the USD lose ground against its Japanese counterpart. The numbers however are unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s current policy stance and are consistent with a recovering economy. In a positive spin the steady increase took private employment in the US passed pre-recession peaks for the first time while the participation rate jumped higher.

The Euro struggled to break higher as markets continued to sell the bloc currency unit on speculation of increased ECB stimulus. The Euro fell to a one month low against the Greenback as analyst reacted to the heightened possibility the ECB will look to adopt quantitative easing as a measure to combat persistently low inflation. Comments from Central Bank President Mario Draghi made Thursday suggested the board was prepared to use “unconventional instruments in fighting the prolonged low inflation”. The Euro opens this morning lower at 1.3694.

Data releases

• AUD: AIG Construction Index and Job Advertisements
• NZD: No Data
• JPY: No Data
• GBP: No Data  
• EUR: German Industrial Production and Sentix Investor Confidence
• USD: No Data