United States Dollar:
The markets will be looking to this morning’s inflation data from the UK for the first possible dip into negative territory since 1960. CPI currently sits at 0.0% and should it go negative then expect to see GBP/USD drop towards the five year low of 1.4565 we saw during yesterday’s Asian session. Cable has recovered a little during the past 24 hours to currently trade at 1.4670 and we should see a break above 1.47 should the CPI figure turn positive again. This afternoon sees the first top-tier data from the States with retail sales released. After a disappointing March reading the markets are expecting a stellar 0.7% m/m growth for the core reading and 1.1% from the overall reading.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.4550 to 1.47.
Euro:
EUR/USD currently trades at 1.0555 close to the multi-year low of 1.0525 hit yesterday as the ongoing Greek worries continue to weigh over the shared currency. Tomorrow sees the ECB rate announcement and accompanying press conference. No change in policy is expected however ECB chief Mario Draghi’s comments on the low level of inflation will, as always, be closely followed. GBP/EUR currently trades at 1.3885 after briefly topping 1.39 first thing this morning.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3760 to 1.3915.
Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:
Overnight has seen a solid New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Business Confidence release which printed 23. Anything above 0 indicates optimism and this was the 11th consecutive positive quarter. New Zealand’s economy seems to be holding up well compared to Australia’s sluggish recent performance, although the recent soft Chinese data will be of concern to both. It could be a volatile few days for the antipodeans with Chinese GDP and Industrial Production data being published tonight as well as numerous pieces of data from the States this week. AUD/USD is at .7575 with GBP/AUD at 1.9330. NZD/USD is at .7450 with GBP/NZD at 1.9660.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9290 to 1.95.
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9590 to 1.9720.
Data releases for the next 24 hours:
AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment
EUR: No data
GBP: CPI y/y; PPI Input m/m; RPI y/y
NZD: No data
USD: Core Retail Sales m/m; PPI m/m; Retail Sales m/m
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