There will be short covering in case the rupee weakens today. Any hints of a sustained weakness can force exporters to cancel and rebook which can result in more weakness in the spot rupee. Apart from global developments, I will be looking at the Indian parliament session next week. The will, intent and diplomatic skills will be tested of the prime minister will be tested. The opposition parties in India never play a constructive role. The honeymoon period of the NDA government gets over this week. Failure to pass key legislative bills in the next one month, will reverse the India positive sentiment among global investor. I am cautiously optimistic on the rupee in the near term.
Most of the global forecasters foresee India growing at over six percent in the next fiscal year beginning 1st April. To achieve six percent growth there biggest challenge will be to ensure that India remains a long term attractive investment destination. Food price inflation needs to be controlled. The government has to ensure that there is trickle down of higher and sustainable Indian growth. Six percent GDP growth in India can be achieved easily by benefitting a small section of the population. But lower income groups have voted Mr. Modi to power so that they benefit. The prime minister understands this. However performance will only count.
The next three weeks are very crucial for the US dollar-Indian Rupee (inter-bank). There will be options covering in case US dollar-Indian Rupee (inter-bank) breaks and trade over 62.72. The next big upside trigger will be only if US dollar-Indian Rupee (inter-bank) breaks and trade over 62.72. However in case 62.72 is not broken in the next three weeks, then there will be a fall back to 60.86 and 60.10.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key resistance is at 62.28. A break of 62.28 will result in 62.48 and 62.67. Initial support is at 62.02. There will be sellers if usd/inr trades below 62.02 in UK session.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key resistance is at 78.19. Only a break of 78.19 will result in further rise to 78.67-79.02. In case euro/inr does not break 78.19 by tomorrow then it will fall to 77.42 and 77.14 first.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key short term resistance is at 98.29. Only a break of 98.29 will trigger another wave of rise. Initial support is 97.27 and with 96.89 as the key intraday support.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It can fall to 52.3025 and 52.0775 as long as it trades below 52.7675. Only a break of 52.7675 will result in further rise to 53.0625 and 53.7775. There can be short covering anytime. Short sellers in yen need to be careful.
Most of the global forecasters foresee India growing at over six percent in the next fiscal year beginning 1st April. To achieve six percent growth there biggest challenge will be to ensure that India remains a long term attractive investment destination. Food price inflation needs to be controlled. The government has to ensure that there is trickle down of higher and sustainable Indian growth. Six percent GDP growth in India can be achieved easily by benefitting a small section of the population. But lower income groups have voted Mr. Modi to power so that they benefit. The prime minister understands this. However performance will only count.
The next three weeks are very crucial for the US dollar-Indian Rupee (inter-bank). There will be options covering in case US dollar-Indian Rupee (inter-bank) breaks and trade over 62.72. The next big upside trigger will be only if US dollar-Indian Rupee (inter-bank) breaks and trade over 62.72. However in case 62.72 is not broken in the next three weeks, then there will be a fall back to 60.86 and 60.10.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key resistance is at 62.28. A break of 62.28 will result in 62.48 and 62.67. Initial support is at 62.02. There will be sellers if usd/inr trades below 62.02 in UK session.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key resistance is at 78.19. Only a break of 78.19 will result in further rise to 78.67-79.02. In case euro/inr does not break 78.19 by tomorrow then it will fall to 77.42 and 77.14 first.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key short term resistance is at 98.29. Only a break of 98.29 will trigger another wave of rise. Initial support is 97.27 and with 96.89 as the key intraday support.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It can fall to 52.3025 and 52.0775 as long as it trades below 52.7675. Only a break of 52.7675 will result in further rise to 53.0625 and 53.7775. There can be short covering anytime. Short sellers in yen need to be careful.
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