Rupee gained yesterday on speculation that India could get a ratings upgrade. This has already been factored in by the markets. The rise in Indian stock markets also triggered short selling in the rupee.
IMF has said that emerging markets including India need to be geared up for higher interest rates in USA and UK. RBI is there to ensure that changes currency valuation does not affect nation’s exports. It is constantly keeping a close vigil on currency direction of nations with which India export competition. Intervention is just a way to sustained prevent big one way moves. At this point of time it will be difficult to predict how the rupee will react when the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. On the technical front, in the next six months there will be short covering if and only if there are indications that US dollar – Indian Rupee has a greater probability of breaking past 63.60 in the inter-bank market.
Indian imports of Iranian oil rose by nearly half to 271,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January-August from a year ago, when refineries cut purchases due to worries about insurance coverage for processing crude from Tehran. The reduction in crude oil purchases from Middle East is one of the ways to reduce energy related payables. The NDA government will be on the lookout for ways and means where crude oil can be billed in non-US dollar ways. These are all positive steps for the nation.
Quarter end position squaring and rebuilding has started.
Usd/inr September 2014: Intraday support is at 60.88. There will be sellers only below 60.88 to 60.74 and 60.52. Only a break of 61.02 will result in further rise.
Euro/inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 78.72 for further gains to 79.42. There will be sellers on rise as long as euro/usd does not break 78.72 with 78.1450 as the key support.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: A break of 100.67 will result in 100.98 and 101.47. Initial support is at 100.41. There will be sellers only below 100.41.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key support is at 55.52. There will be another wave of selling only below 55.52. As long as 55.52 holds jpy/inr can still rise to 56.40 and 58.10.
IMF has said that emerging markets including India need to be geared up for higher interest rates in USA and UK. RBI is there to ensure that changes currency valuation does not affect nation’s exports. It is constantly keeping a close vigil on currency direction of nations with which India export competition. Intervention is just a way to sustained prevent big one way moves. At this point of time it will be difficult to predict how the rupee will react when the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. On the technical front, in the next six months there will be short covering if and only if there are indications that US dollar – Indian Rupee has a greater probability of breaking past 63.60 in the inter-bank market.
Indian imports of Iranian oil rose by nearly half to 271,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January-August from a year ago, when refineries cut purchases due to worries about insurance coverage for processing crude from Tehran. The reduction in crude oil purchases from Middle East is one of the ways to reduce energy related payables. The NDA government will be on the lookout for ways and means where crude oil can be billed in non-US dollar ways. These are all positive steps for the nation.
Quarter end position squaring and rebuilding has started.
Usd/inr September 2014: Intraday support is at 60.88. There will be sellers only below 60.88 to 60.74 and 60.52. Only a break of 61.02 will result in further rise.
Euro/inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 78.72 for further gains to 79.42. There will be sellers on rise as long as euro/usd does not break 78.72 with 78.1450 as the key support.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: A break of 100.67 will result in 100.98 and 101.47. Initial support is at 100.41. There will be sellers only below 100.41.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key support is at 55.52. There will be another wave of selling only below 55.52. As long as 55.52 holds jpy/inr can still rise to 56.40 and 58.10.
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