A recent study by Barclays has highlighted the energy sector as the most affected by the strength of the dollar. The correlation between the price of oil and the dollar is quite obvious, but mostly the 45% of international revenue affects the profit of the American energy companies and penalizes the stock trend when the greenback strengthens. The study shows that a 5% strengthening of the dollar has a negative impact on sales by 2.2%.
The graph is very clear with waves up and down that witness that the MSCI Energy Sector is closely following the trend of EurUsd. Betting on a rebound phase of EurUsd from the current level means betting on stock on the energy sector shares in order to have a positive return.
Back to the change, the uncertainty of the Dollar Index of the past week raises serious questions about the bullish break which was formalized in September. A drop below 85 in fact would be a rather worrying return on its steps for the Dollar and the sentiment, as indicated by the Cot Fx for weeks now, is beginning to be overly positive. In support of this, we can also quote some forecasts for 2015 of major investment banks on EurUsd. Ubs 1.20, HSBC 1.19, Morgan Stanley 1.12, Barclay's 1.11, Goldman 1.00 and Deutsche 0.95 (Charts source: Metastock and Bloomberg).
The graph is very clear with waves up and down that witness that the MSCI Energy Sector is closely following the trend of EurUsd. Betting on a rebound phase of EurUsd from the current level means betting on stock on the energy sector shares in order to have a positive return.
Back to the change, the uncertainty of the Dollar Index of the past week raises serious questions about the bullish break which was formalized in September. A drop below 85 in fact would be a rather worrying return on its steps for the Dollar and the sentiment, as indicated by the Cot Fx for weeks now, is beginning to be overly positive. In support of this, we can also quote some forecasts for 2015 of major investment banks on EurUsd. Ubs 1.20, HSBC 1.19, Morgan Stanley 1.12, Barclay's 1.11, Goldman 1.00 and Deutsche 0.95 (Charts source: Metastock and Bloomberg).
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