Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Right at the last on Friday the bulls took strong charge as a bunch of technical factors helped sway the market upwards. WTI ended the week up $2.93 and Brent $3.27 only a touch more than Friday’s rise. With only 6 days to go until the Doha meeting there are various reports and speeches to be watched out for. The Russian Oil Minister started the ball rolling by suggesting that the start date of the freeze may be a moveable feast, perhaps not January,maybe April? There are many other questions, mainly centering around Iran’s position and whether they get a free ride to 4m b/d, Libya’s production if it can ever get back on its feet and of course how far the Saudis let all this go, after all the higher price at the moment comes with a commensurate increase in optimism in the US. It is worth reading Dan Yergins interview in the FT today, I tend to share his view on Opec, as I have said for some time, the Saudi stance was to take out all higher cost crude oil, in or out of Opec.
The rig count helped a bit, overall the number was down 7 at 443 units, while oil was down 8 at 354 units. This week sees the EIA, Opec and the IEA all produce their monthly reports, these and the inventory stats will shape the market more than usual.
The blog may be intermittent for the next 48 hours as I am away with a group in Gdansk.
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