Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
As the weekend approaches and we see some consolidation in oil prices the markets are as uncertain as ever and looking further out there is no strong feeling of security. I suspect that market participants, as we can call them, will be happy enough with $46.50 and $50.54 respectively for WTI and Brent but not exactly doing handstands quite yet. That is because for the oil market, particularly in the USA this weekend is a meaningful one. It’s the Labor Day holiday weekend and that means only one thing, the end of the driving season with all that that entails. From now on the demand for gasoline falls off quite sharply and even at $2.51 a gallon the temptation to drive halfway across the States diminishes rapidly. Refinery runs should slow as the owners use the autumn downtime to switch to heating fuel and the risk of crude oil stocks rising is a real one.
This weekend also is preceded by the Non-farm payroll number, more eagerly awaited than usual as the Fed is trying to decide whether to raise rates at their September 17/18 meeting or to wait. I understand that with consensus at around 217/- added jobs a low figure will push the rise off maybe by a quarter, 300/- would mean September for sure. The only other stat worth watching should be the pay numbers, inflation is also a key factor in the process. Finally Baker Hughes will provide the rig count this afternoon.
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.