_XtraSmall.jpg){kind=small}
COT Analysis for reporting date July 15th 2014
The COT report is a very useful but overlooked sentiment indicator. The way we use it at OrderFlowTrading helps us attain a longer term perspective on major capital flows, as well as a read on how overextended certain markets may be. It is part of a larger arsenal of sentiment indicators that we use.
Recent developments:
- DXY: Specs still long, printing a strong week for the USD.
- Amongs the comm-dolls, last week we saw inflows into both Aud and Cad.
- Amongst European FX, we saw an increase in short interest in both Euro and Gbp.
- Amongst Safe-Haven FX, we saw a loss if interst in both Chf and Jpy.
- Speculative interest is highest in Gbp overall and lowest in Eur overall.
- Most crowded trades: Nzd(FX), Crude (Commodities).
Comments & most intersting charts:
The AUD is still registering an extreme long sentiment situation and the %Long is still relatively high, hence supporting the case for some profit taking. Whilst we are still in a range, we need some confirmation like a break of the recent support ledge.
Source: Tradingview.com
AudUsd Daily chart
NzdUsd has finally decided to give us some sign of profit-taking and downwards momentum. We were expecting it sooner or later, and even if there was no extreme sentiment to be registered last week, the %Long went above 70% and we also have price action to help.
Source: Tradingview.com
NzdUsd Weekly chart
Cad continues to gain interest amongst the spec community and last week we printed a dragonfly doji that would indicate some more Cad strength, in the face of the already extreme long situation. Given the contrasting evidence, this is the least convincing situation and we would not be surprized to see further Cad losses.
Source: tradingview.com
UsdCad Weekly chart
In other news:
- ZB has flipped back to positive, as we expected.
- Euro is still extremely short into this support ledge at the 1.3500s. There may be some evidence for tactical bullish momentum on the back of this extreme sentiment and a daily bullish dragonfly doji from friday, but the opportunity may be better observed on EurNzd – benefitting from “the bird's” fresh downwards momentum.
To sum up: watch AudUsd, NzdUsd, UsdCad and EurNzd this week.
Catch you next week!
The COT report is a very useful but overlooked sentiment indicator. The way we use it at OrderFlowTrading helps us attain a longer term perspective on major capital flows, as well as a read on how overextended certain markets may be. It is part of a larger arsenal of sentiment indicators that we use.
Recent developments:
- DXY: Specs still long, printing a strong week for the USD.
- Amongs the comm-dolls, last week we saw inflows into both Aud and Cad.
- Amongst European FX, we saw an increase in short interest in both Euro and Gbp.
- Amongst Safe-Haven FX, we saw a loss if interst in both Chf and Jpy.
- Speculative interest is highest in Gbp overall and lowest in Eur overall.
- Most crowded trades: Nzd(FX), Crude (Commodities).
Comments & most intersting charts:
The AUD is still registering an extreme long sentiment situation and the %Long is still relatively high, hence supporting the case for some profit taking. Whilst we are still in a range, we need some confirmation like a break of the recent support ledge.
Source: Tradingview.com
AudUsd Daily chart
NzdUsd has finally decided to give us some sign of profit-taking and downwards momentum. We were expecting it sooner or later, and even if there was no extreme sentiment to be registered last week, the %Long went above 70% and we also have price action to help.
Source: Tradingview.com
NzdUsd Weekly chart
Cad continues to gain interest amongst the spec community and last week we printed a dragonfly doji that would indicate some more Cad strength, in the face of the already extreme long situation. Given the contrasting evidence, this is the least convincing situation and we would not be surprized to see further Cad losses.
Source: tradingview.com
UsdCad Weekly chart
In other news:
- ZB has flipped back to positive, as we expected.
- Euro is still extremely short into this support ledge at the 1.3500s. There may be some evidence for tactical bullish momentum on the back of this extreme sentiment and a daily bullish dragonfly doji from friday, but the opportunity may be better observed on EurNzd – benefitting from “the bird's” fresh downwards momentum.
To sum up: watch AudUsd, NzdUsd, UsdCad and EurNzd this week.
Catch you next week!
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.