KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Headlines
Polish and Hungarian growth figures for the 4th quarter of 2015 surprise slightly on the upside
The Czech inflation moved higher above zero in January since a positive base effect worked as expected
A lot of key fundamental data have been released this morning Central Europe. Basically all released data were very close market expectations. While the Czech inflation inched higher in January thanks to positive base effect and higher food prices (hence both year-on-year and month-on-month CPI growth rates reached 0.6%), it was encouraging to see that Polish and Hungarian growth figures GDP for the 4th quarter of 2015 surprised on the upside too.
The Polish growth almost reached 4%, the positive surprise was especially visible in the Hungarian case as GDP increased by 3.2% y/y in 4Q15. We assume that with exception of the agriculture and construction all sectors rose in the last quarter. Although the detailed figure will be published only 3-weeks later, we think that domestic consumption accelerated further and EU funds money use pushed up investment level. The trade balance suggests that the net export contribution to the GDP was also higher in 4Q15 than in 3Q15. The full year growth of 2.9% Y/Y was fully in line with our expectation. The Hungarian economy is likely to slow in the following quarters to around 2% Y/Y, but the second half of the year GDP may accelerate slightly so we expect 2.3% Y/Y growth for 2016.
| Currencies | % chng | |
| EUR/CZK | 27.03 | 0.1 |
| EUR/HUF | 310.9 | -0.1 |
| EUR/PLN | 4.42 | 0.3 |
| EUR/USD | 1.13 | 0.3 |
| EUR/CHF | 1.10 | 0.2 |
| FRA 3x6 | % | bps chng |
| CZK | 0.18 | -1 |
| HUF | 1.30 | -1 |
| PLN | 1.54 | 0 |
| EUR | -0.27 | -1 |
| GB | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. 10Y | 0.56 | 2 |
| Hungary 10Y | 3.58 | 0 |
| Poland 10Y | 3.10 | -2 |
| Slovakia 10Y | 0.60 | -2 |
| CDS 5Y | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. | 47 | 1 |
| Hungary | 165 | 2 |
| Poland | 94 | 0 |
| Slovakia | 47 | 1 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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