KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
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Polish zloty remains under pressure
Belka wants banks to share burden of foreign loans
The Polish zloty gained more than 2 % against the Swiss franc but remained under pressure against the euro yesterday. Recent comments by top NBP-bankers, no matter how moderate, evidently failed to reassure FX market. Elisabetha Chojna- Duch, for instance, one of the key swing voters in the MPC, who decided that the rates stayed on hold in November, apparently prefers rate stability and “being cautious”. On a related note, another top central banker, Anna Zelinska Glebocka, has recently said that a slump of the Polish zloty would postpone possible rate cuts.
Part of markets´ recent nervousness may be attributed to NBP governor Belka´s statement calling on Polish banks to share the burden of (suddenly much more expensive) CHF loans granted to Poles in the past. Mr. Belka stressed that the FX risk born so far entirely by borrowers should be shared also by creditors. Resemblance of the recent development concerning dear FX loans to the Hungarian precedent may make some investors shiver.
Poland will remain in focus today as data from its labour market (wages, employment) are to be released. A strong wage growth – if reported - could provide additional ammunition to the hawkish camp in the NBP board.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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