Japan Q2 Tankan meets estimates

Asian Market Update: Japan Q2 Tankan meets estimates, CAPEX projections spike; China twin PMIs steady

Notable Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA JUN FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.7 V 50.8E

- (CN) CHINA JUN MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.0 V 51.0E (6-month high)

- (JP) JAPAN Q2 TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEX: 12 V 15E (falls for the 1st time in 6 quarters); LARGE ALL INDUSTRIAL CAPEX (forecast for FY14/15) y/y: 7.4% V 6.0%E; LARGE MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK: 15 V 17E

- (JP) JAPAN MAY LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.7%E

- (JP) JAPAN JUN FINAL MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.5 V 51.1 PRELIM

- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX: 48.9 V 49.2 PRIOR (8th consecutive contraction)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN RPDATA/RISMARK HOUSE PRICE INDEX: +1.4% V -1.9% PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JUN TRADE BALANCE: $5.3B V $5.4BE

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +1.3%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng closed, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 1,955

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Aug gold +0.5% at $1,328, Aug crude oil +0.2% at $105.58/brl, Sept Copper +0.1% at $3.21/lb

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 5.7 tonnes to 790.7 tonnes (highest since Apr 28th)

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥300B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥200B in 3-5yr JGB and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB

- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 28-day repos

- (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1523 v 6.1528 prior setting (strongest since Jun 13th)

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- China official manufacturing PMI hit a 6-month high, meeting consensus at 51.0. Among the more notable components, New Exports returned to expansion of 50.3 v 49.3 m/m and Employment rose to 48.6 from 48.2. HSBC final PMI remained in expansion as anticipated by recovery in the Flash data, coming in at 50.7 v 50.8 initial estimate. HSBC chief China economist said the latest figure "confirms the trend of stronger demand and faster de-stocking", but also noting "there are still downside risks from a slowdown in the property market, which will continue to put pressure on growth in the second half of the year."

- Bank of Japan put out its Q2 Tankan survey, with large manufacturing falling for the 1st time in 6 quarters given the consumption-tax related slowdown in economy. Industrial CAPEX forecast for FY14/15 surprised to the upside however, rising 7.4% on composite basis and 12% for manufacturing. Japan labor cash earnings saw base wages rise 0.2% - the first increase in 26 months - but real wages (ex-inflation) registered their largest decline since Dec 2009. In notable Japan press reports, Business Federation (Keidanren) stated the pay at large Japanese companies rose 2.3% following spring negotiations - the biggest increase in 15 years. Separately, Nikkei reported the govt will allocate ¥3T in FY15/16 for PM Abe's growth strategy plan.

- Ceasefire between Ukraine govt and pro-Russia rebels in the east part of the country expired without being renewed. Instead president Poroshenko promised to liberate occupied Ukraine land by going on the attack, claiming rebels had violated the ceasefire over 100 times. Initial reports indicated artillery and gunfire in the city of Kramatorsk.

- Tensions in the Middle East are also on the rise after Israeli govt confirmed the deaths of 3 teenagers were at the hands of Hamas militants and promising retribution. Subsequent shelling from Gaza was reportedly returned by the Israeli military, striking over 30 suspected terrorist targets in the Gaza strip.

Equities

US markets:

- ADSK: Guides Q2 above high end of prior outlook (implies > $0.25-0.30 v $0.27e, R$595-610M v $597Me); Reiterates FY15 guidance; +0.1% afterhours

- COO: Announces definitive agreement to acquire Sauflon Pharmaceuticals for $1.2B; -0.2% afterhours

- PF: Announces Termination of Merger Agreement with Hillshire Brands; Reaffirms EPS Guidance for 2014; -0.6% afterhours

- GEVA: Reports positive phase III top-line results from study of Sebelipase Alfa in children and adults with LAL Deficiency; -3.6% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Ansell ANN.AU -2.9% (announces restructure plan)

- Industrials: Asahi Kasei Corp 3407.JP +1.3% (investment plan for petrochemical business); Nufarm Ltd NUF.AU -3.1% (analyst action); Mitsubishi Motors 7211.JP +0.6% (production agreement with Chrysler Mexico)

- Technology: Guangdong Ellington Electronics Technology Co Ltd 603328.CN +44.0% (IPO debut day); Carsales.com CRZ.AU +4.2% (announces acquisition)

- Materials: Itochu 8001.JP +1.0% (forms JV with Tewoo in China)