- USD/JPY surrenders a majority of its intraday gains after a sharp rally in the opening session.
- The pair gives up gains as US Dollar falls back amid uncertainty ahead of US data.
- The scenario of a coalition government in Japan has diminished BoJ rate hike prospects.
The USD/JPY pair gives up the majority of its intraday gains after facing significant bids near 154.00 in Monday’s North American session. The asset showed a strong upside move in the opening session due to a sharp weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY) but faced pressure at elevated levels as the US Dollar (USD) retreated after failing to extend rally.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls back after revisiting an almost three-month high of 104.60. The Greenback’s rally appears to have stalled as investors turn cautious ahead of a string of United States (US) economic data such as: JOLTS Job Openings and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for September, Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, to be published this week.
The economic data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action for the remaining two meetings this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a usual size rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) in November and are confident that a similar move will be performed in the December meeting.
Market participants are likely to focus more on the economic growth and labor market-related data as Fed officials are confident the inflation remains sustainably on track towards bank’s target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the outlook of the Yen has weakened as the Japanese economy is poised to run by a coalition government after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) failed to get majority seats in the snap election. The scenario bodes poorly for forward growth as Shigeru Ishiba won’t be the only caretaker of the economy. This has also weakened hopes of more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for this year.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
How will US Dollar react to inflation data amidst all the tariff noise? – LIVE
Investors will take a break from the non-stop headlines surrounding the US tariff policy and scrutinize March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US on Thursday, which could have a significant impact on the Fed policy outlook and the US Dollar's performance.
EUR/USD climbs higher toward 1.1100 ahead of US CPI release
EUR/USD extends its daily rally toward 1.1100 on Thursday as the Euro benefits from the EU's decision to pause countermeasure against US tariffs for 90 days. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of CPI data, further boosting the pair.
Gold clings to gains above $3,110, closes in on all-time high
Gold builds on Wednesday's impressive gains and trades above $3,110 on Thursday. The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar and retreating US bond yields on growing fears of a deepening trade war between China and the US fuel XAU/USD's rally.
GBP/USD rises above 1.2900, US CPI data awaited
GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum and trades above 1.2900 on Thursday. The British Pound capitalizes on risk appetite, courtesy of Trump's tariff pause, allowing the pair to push higher as market focus shits to March inflation data from the US.
Trump’s tariff pause sparks rally – What comes next?
Markets staged a dramatic reversal Wednesday, led by a 12% surge in the Nasdaq and strong gains across major indices, following President Trump’s unexpected decision to pause tariff escalation for non-retaliating trade partners.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.