- USD/JPY recoups some intraday losses as the US Dollar gains ground with focus on Donald Trump’s inauguration.
- Traders have raised Fed dovish bets after soft US core CPI data for December.
- BoJ Ueda keeps the option of further rate hikes in January’s policy meeting on the table.
The USD/JPY pair bounces back from the intraday low of 155.20 and rises to near 156.00 but is still down around 0.25% in Thursday’s North American session. The asset recovers as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after Wednesday’s sell-off that was driven by surprisingly lower core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for December.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 109.25.
The CPI report showed on Wednesday that the core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – grew at a slower pace of 3.2% from the estimates and the prior release of 3.3%. Soft core reading led to an uptick in Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets. As a result, traders are now pricing in two interest rate cuts from the Fed this year, with the first coming in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, the next major trigger for the US Dollar is the President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony on Monday. Market participants expect Trump will release updated tariff plan sooner that would lead to a global trade war. The impact will be favorable for growth and inflationary pressures in the United States (US).
In the Asia Pacific front, growing expectations of more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the Japanese Yen (JPY) on the frontfoot. Traders price in two interest rate hikes this year, Reuters reported. Market speculation for the BoJ to raise interest rates were stemmed from Governor Kazuo Ueda’s commentary on Wednesday in which he said that the central bank is currently “analysing data thoroughly” and will compile the findings in the quarterly outlook report, and on based on that the bank will discuss whether to “raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting”.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD jumps back above 1.1000 on renewed US Dollar sell-off
EUR/USD is posting sizeable gains above 1.1000 in early Europe on Monday. EU prepares for retaliatory tariffs and rekindles the global trade war and US recession fears, drowning the US Dollar again aross the board. Traders now look to the EU Sentix and Retail Sales data.
GBP/USD holds recovery gains above 1.2900 amid fresh US Dollar weakness
GBP/USD clings to recovery gains above 1.2900 in European trading on Monday. The pair capitalizes on renewed US Dollar weakness as risk sentiment takes a fresh hit, with European traders hitting their desks. Trump's tariffs-led US recession fears and dovish Fed bets keep the USD undermined.
Gold price rebounds swiftly from multi-week low; lacks follow-through
Gold price reverses an Asian session slide to over a three-week low, though it lacks follow-through. Recession fears continue to weigh on investor sentiment and benefit the safe-haven commodity. Bets for more aggressive Fed rate cuts undermine USD and also lend support to the XAU/USD pair.
Crypto market wipes out $1 billion in liquidation as Asian markets bleed red
The crypto markets continue to decline on Monday, with Bitcoin falling below $78,000. The Asian markets also traded in the red, with Japan’s stock market extending losses to 8.5%, its lowest level since October 2023.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.