- USD/JPY extends its losing streak for the fourth trading session and shifts below 150.00 ahead of US NFP.
- The US NFP report is expected to show slowing labor demand, a decline in wage growth, and a steady Unemployment Rate.
- BoJ’s hawkish monetary policy sparked strength in the Japanese Yen.
The USD/JPY pair trades inside Thursday’s trading range below the psychological figure of 150.00 in Friday’s late Asian session. The asset remains on the backfoot as Federal’s Reserve’s (Fed) expected dovish guidance on interest rates has dampened the US Dollar’s appeal. Also, sheer strength in the Japanese Yen due to Bank of Japan’s aggressive-than-expected policy-tightening has weighed on the major.
The market sentiment remains risk-off ahead of the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses in the Asian trading hours.
Economists have estimated that 175K new workers were hired in July, lower than the former addition of 206K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.
Investors will keenly focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure to wage growth that fuels consumer spending which eventually influence price pressures. Annually, the wage growth measure is estimated to have decelerated to 3.7% from the prior reading of 3.9%, with monthly figure growing steadily by 0.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower to 104.23.
The Japanese Yen, however, is performing strongly since the BoJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) against estimated of 10 bps. Also, the BoJ pledged to halve bond-buying operations by early 2026. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda kept door open for more rate hikes this year and remained confident on further increase in price pressures and an improvement in economic conditions.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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