- The Indian Rupee drifts higher on the weaker US Dollar on Tuesday.
- India’s inflows might lift the INR, while the weakness in major Asian peers and higher oil prices might cap the upside.
- Traders await US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Consumer Confidence and the speech from Fed’s Cook and Bowman on Tuesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains traction on Tuesday, supported by the softer US Dollar (USD) across the board. The significant inflows related to the inclusion of Indian bonds in the JPMorgan emerging market debt index could support the INR. However, the upside of the Indian Rupee might be limited by a decline in major Asian currencies like the Chinese Yuan and the Japanese Yen. Additionally, the rise in crude oil prices amid the hope for strong summer driving demand could weigh on the INR as India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer after the United States (US) and China.
The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May and Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday. Also, the Fed’s Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman are set to speak. Investors will shift their attention to the key US economic data later this week. The final reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) is due on Thursday, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for May will be published on Friday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains firm, supported by optimistic economic outlook
- The S&P Global Ratings retained its growth forecast for India at 6.8% for FY25, citing high interest rates and government spending boosting demand in the non-agricultural sectors.
- India is expected to become a $4 trillion economy in 2025, surpassing Japan by early next fiscal year to become the world's fourth largest economy, according to Indian Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the Fed must continue the work of fully restoring price stability without a painful disruption to the economy. Daly added that while the central bank still has "more work to do" on bringing inflation down, inflation is not the only risk they face.
- The final reading of the US headline and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is estimated to show a rise of 2.6% on a yearly basis in May.
- The financial markets have priced in a 66% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, increasing from 59.5% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Technical analysis: USD/INR might see further consolidation in the near term
The Indian Rupee trades firmly on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair maintains the constructive picture on the daily chart beyond the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50-midline, indicating that further consolidation in the near term looks favorable.
A move to the all-time high of 83.75 would increase the possibility of an up-leg to the 84.00 psychological level. Further gains to 84.50 are also on the table if USD/INR gains bullish momentum beyond the mentioned level.
On the downside, extended losses may extend its downswing to the potential support level at the 83.30-83.35 region, representing the confluence of the resistance-turned-support level and the 100-day EMA. Further south, the next downside barrier is located at the 83.00 round figure.
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.13% | -0.11% | 0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.16% | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.09% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.03% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.14% | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.02% | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | 0.09% | -0.04% | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.18% | -0.09% | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Economic Indicator
Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR
The Federal Fiscal Deficit, released by the Controller General of Accounts, is the difference between the amount the government takes in as revenue against its overall spending. Generally speaking, if the reading is negative, it means the Indian accounts are in a surplus, and that should be positive (or bullish) for the Rupee. On the other hand, a growth in the federal deficit is considered negative (or bearish) for the Rupee.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 2,101.4B
Source: Ministry of Finance of India
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Trading Pro
Account
7.2
8.2
7.2
Tools
5.2
Service
6.6
Trading
8.0
Trust
5.0
Experience
7.0
Recommended content
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains below 1.1000 on Powell's remarks
The US Dollar's recovery has gained momentum, pushing EUR/USD down to sub-1.1000 levels—the daily lows—following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's "Economic Outlook" speech.
GBP/USD loses the grip and approaches 1.2900
GBP/USD is shedding some of its weekly gains and retreating back to around the 1.2900 level, as the Greenback continues its recovery following Chair Powell's comments.
Gold remains offered, looks at $3,000
Gold prices are deepening their daily retreat, edging closer to the crucial $3,000 per troy ounce level as the US Dollar strengthens, all while investors digest Fed Chair Powell's speech.
Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?
Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.