USD/CHF falls toward 0.8950 after pulling back from five-month highs

USD/CHF retreats after hitting its five-month high at 0.9021 on Thursday.
The Fed’s ‘dot-plot’ suggested only two rate cuts in 2025.
The Swiss trade surplus narrowed to 5,424 million in November, down from the previous surplus of 8,025 million.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CHF edges lower following Switzerland’s trade balance data released on Thursday. The pair trades around 0.8970 during the European hours after pulling back from five-month high at 0.9021.

Additionally, the USD/CHF appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at its December meeting, bringing the benchmark lending rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking a two-year low.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 108.28, the highest level not seen since November 2022, on Thursday as the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, or ‘dot-plot’, suggested only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September.

Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed will be cautious about further cuts as inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Traders are highly expected to focus on upcoming US economic data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and the final Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reading, scheduled for release on Thursday.

Switzerland's Trade Balance, released by the Federal Customs Administration, showed a narrowing surplus of 5,424 million in November, down from 8,025 million in October. On a month-on-month basis, exports declined to 23,682 million, while imports fell to 18,257 million.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains under pressure as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining price stability over the medium term, signaling readiness to adjust monetary policy if needed. Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has downwardly revised growth targets for the current year and 2025 to 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

Economic Indicator

Trade Balance

The Trade Balance released by the Federal Customs Administration is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. Generally speaking, if a steady demand in exchange for Swiss exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CHF.

EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1900 as traders eye US data

EUR/USD eases to near 1.1900 in Tuesday's European trading hours, snapping the two-day winning streak. Markets turn cautious, lifting the haven demand for the US Dollar ahead of the release of key US economic data, including Retail Sales and ADP Employment Change 4-week average.

GBP/USD stays in the red below 1.3700 on renewed USD demand

GBP/USD trades on a weaker note below 1.3700 in the European session on Tuesday. The pair faces challenges due to renewed US Dollar demand, UK political risks and rising expectations of a March Bank of England rate cut. The immediate focus is now on the US Retail Sales data.

Gold sticks to modest losses above $5,000 ahead of US data

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the first half of the European session, though it holds comfortably above the $5,000 psychological mark and the daily swing low. The outcome of Japan's snap election on Sunday removes political uncertainty, which along with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.

Follow the money, what USD/JPY in Tokyo is really telling you

Over the past two Tokyo sessions, this has not been a rate story. Not even close. Interest rate differentials have been spectators, not drivers. What has moved USD/JPY in local hours has been flow and flow alone.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.